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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Canadian Banks Face Earnings Challenges Amid Commodity Slump

 

Futures for Canada’s main stock index tumbled on Wednesday, tracking a decline in commodity prices. Investors are closely monitoring big bank earnings in Canada and awaiting key inflation data from the United States. Here are the key points:

  1. Market Movement:

    • March futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6% at 6:52 a.m. ET, mirroring losses in Wall Street peers.
    • The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with financial shares offsetting gains in energy.

  2. Energy and Materials Sectors:

    • Energy shares are expected to reverse gains due to a 1% decline in oil prices. The prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and a rise in U.S. crude stocks counterbalances the boost from a potential extension to OPEC+ supply curbs.
    • Materials stocks may extend losses as gold prices edge down, influenced by a stronger dollar, and concerns persist about China’s property sector affecting copper prices.

  3. Bank Earnings:

    • Investors continue to analyze quarterly earnings from Canadian banks:
      • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reported a lower first-quarter profit due to larger provisions for loans.
      • National Bank of Canada reported a higher first-quarter profit, cushioned by robust performance in its financial markets unit despite increased loan loss provisions.

  4. Inflation and GDP Data:

    • The U.S. is set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, along with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation.
    • Investors are also awaiting Canada’s GDP reading.

  5. Commodities Snapshot:

    • Gold futures: $2,036.4 (-0.4%).
    • U.S. crude: $78.1 (-1.0%).
    • Brent crude: $82.95 (-0.8%).

The outlook for Canadian banks in 2024 remains uncertain, with mortgage rates and interest rates playing a pivotal role. Unless there are rate cuts, most Canadian banks are expected to report earnings declines. As investors navigate these headwinds, the path forward hinges on economic data and central bank decisions.

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