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5 Things to Know Today: TSX Recap, Oil Eases, Loonie Under Pressure & Alberta's Pipeline Announcement (July 3, 2026)

  Friday, July 3, 2026 Here's what's moving markets and your money this morning — from Bay Street to the pumps to Ottawa. 1. TSX gains as investors digest a mixed session The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.31% on Thursday at 34,966.67 points (+109.68), its first full trading day back after the Canada Day holiday. Financials were mixed — Brookfield edged higher while TD Bank slipped nearly 1% — but mining stocks got a lift as gold prices ticked up, with Barrick and Franco-Nevada both up more than 3%. Shopify was the standout, jumping over 5% after settling a dispute with Shopline. 2. Oil prices ease as Iran-US talks continue in Doha Crude prices pulled back further and are now trading closer to pre-conflict levels after another round of indirect US-Iran talks in Doha, even though the sides didn't reach a breakthrough. That's welcome news for anyone filling up this long weekend, and it's also easing some of the energy-driven inflation pressure that's been compl...
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Canadian Banks Face Earnings Challenges Amid Commodity Slump

 

Futures for Canada’s main stock index tumbled on Wednesday, tracking a decline in commodity prices. Investors are closely monitoring big bank earnings in Canada and awaiting key inflation data from the United States. Here are the key points:

  1. Market Movement:

    • March futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6% at 6:52 a.m. ET, mirroring losses in Wall Street peers.
    • The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with financial shares offsetting gains in energy.

  2. Energy and Materials Sectors:

    • Energy shares are expected to reverse gains due to a 1% decline in oil prices. The prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and a rise in U.S. crude stocks counterbalances the boost from a potential extension to OPEC+ supply curbs.
    • Materials stocks may extend losses as gold prices edge down, influenced by a stronger dollar, and concerns persist about China’s property sector affecting copper prices.

  3. Bank Earnings:

    • Investors continue to analyze quarterly earnings from Canadian banks:
      • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reported a lower first-quarter profit due to larger provisions for loans.
      • National Bank of Canada reported a higher first-quarter profit, cushioned by robust performance in its financial markets unit despite increased loan loss provisions.

  4. Inflation and GDP Data:

    • The U.S. is set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, along with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation.
    • Investors are also awaiting Canada’s GDP reading.

  5. Commodities Snapshot:

    • Gold futures: $2,036.4 (-0.4%).
    • U.S. crude: $78.1 (-1.0%).
    • Brent crude: $82.95 (-0.8%).

The outlook for Canadian banks in 2024 remains uncertain, with mortgage rates and interest rates playing a pivotal role. Unless there are rate cuts, most Canadian banks are expected to report earnings declines. As investors navigate these headwinds, the path forward hinges on economic data and central bank decisions.

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