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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Tomorrow: What Every Canadian Needs to Know Before June 10

Current Rate 2.25% Held since Oct 2025 Expected Decision HOLD 34/34 economists Announcement 9:45 AM Wed, June 10 (ET) Prime Rate 4.45% Most major lenders On Wednesday morning, June 10, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET — and for Canadians with a mortgage, a variable-rate loan, or a renewal coming up, the decision is just two days away. Governor Tiff Macklem will follow with a press conference at 10:30 AM. The short answer: expect no change. But the full picture is considerably more complicated — and the Bank's tone tomorrow could signal whether rate hikes are quietly creeping back onto the table. The Consensus: A Hold, Full Stop The economist community is remarkably united heading into this decision. In a Reuters poll conducted June 2–5, all 34 economists surveyed predicted the Bank would leave its overnight rate at 2.25%. More than 80% said it would stay there for the rest of 2026. "Under normal circumstances, today's sagging econom...
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Canadian Banks Face Earnings Challenges Amid Commodity Slump

 

Futures for Canada’s main stock index tumbled on Wednesday, tracking a decline in commodity prices. Investors are closely monitoring big bank earnings in Canada and awaiting key inflation data from the United States. Here are the key points:

  1. Market Movement:

    • March futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6% at 6:52 a.m. ET, mirroring losses in Wall Street peers.
    • The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with financial shares offsetting gains in energy.

  2. Energy and Materials Sectors:

    • Energy shares are expected to reverse gains due to a 1% decline in oil prices. The prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and a rise in U.S. crude stocks counterbalances the boost from a potential extension to OPEC+ supply curbs.
    • Materials stocks may extend losses as gold prices edge down, influenced by a stronger dollar, and concerns persist about China’s property sector affecting copper prices.

  3. Bank Earnings:

    • Investors continue to analyze quarterly earnings from Canadian banks:
      • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reported a lower first-quarter profit due to larger provisions for loans.
      • National Bank of Canada reported a higher first-quarter profit, cushioned by robust performance in its financial markets unit despite increased loan loss provisions.

  4. Inflation and GDP Data:

    • The U.S. is set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, along with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation.
    • Investors are also awaiting Canada’s GDP reading.

  5. Commodities Snapshot:

    • Gold futures: $2,036.4 (-0.4%).
    • U.S. crude: $78.1 (-1.0%).
    • Brent crude: $82.95 (-0.8%).

The outlook for Canadian banks in 2024 remains uncertain, with mortgage rates and interest rates playing a pivotal role. Unless there are rate cuts, most Canadian banks are expected to report earnings declines. As investors navigate these headwinds, the path forward hinges on economic data and central bank decisions.

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