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Mortgage Renewal Shock 2026: What Canadian Homeowners Need to Know

  The Reality: Over 60% of Canadian mortgages are renewing in 2025 and 2026—many at rates significantly higher than their original terms. While some homeowners will see relief, others face payment increases of 15–40%. This guide will help you understand what's happening, run the numbers, and explore your options before your renewal date arrives. The Big Picture: What's Happening in 2026 Canada is experiencing a historic wave of mortgage renewals. A large cohort of mortgages originated during the pandemic's historic low-rate period—when rates hovered around 2% or lower in 2020–2021—are now maturing and resetting at today's rates. The Bank of Canada staff estimate that roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages will renew in 2025 and 2026, making this the most significant renewal cycle in decades. In 2026, the average mortgage renewal increase is projected to moderate to around 6%, though individual experiences vary dramatically depending on mortgage type and renewal timing. W...
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Canadian Banks Face Earnings Challenges Amid Commodity Slump

 

Futures for Canada’s main stock index tumbled on Wednesday, tracking a decline in commodity prices. Investors are closely monitoring big bank earnings in Canada and awaiting key inflation data from the United States. Here are the key points:

  1. Market Movement:

    • March futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6% at 6:52 a.m. ET, mirroring losses in Wall Street peers.
    • The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with financial shares offsetting gains in energy.

  2. Energy and Materials Sectors:

    • Energy shares are expected to reverse gains due to a 1% decline in oil prices. The prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and a rise in U.S. crude stocks counterbalances the boost from a potential extension to OPEC+ supply curbs.
    • Materials stocks may extend losses as gold prices edge down, influenced by a stronger dollar, and concerns persist about China’s property sector affecting copper prices.

  3. Bank Earnings:

    • Investors continue to analyze quarterly earnings from Canadian banks:
      • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reported a lower first-quarter profit due to larger provisions for loans.
      • National Bank of Canada reported a higher first-quarter profit, cushioned by robust performance in its financial markets unit despite increased loan loss provisions.

  4. Inflation and GDP Data:

    • The U.S. is set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, along with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation.
    • Investors are also awaiting Canada’s GDP reading.

  5. Commodities Snapshot:

    • Gold futures: $2,036.4 (-0.4%).
    • U.S. crude: $78.1 (-1.0%).
    • Brent crude: $82.95 (-0.8%).

The outlook for Canadian banks in 2024 remains uncertain, with mortgage rates and interest rates playing a pivotal role. Unless there are rate cuts, most Canadian banks are expected to report earnings declines. As investors navigate these headwinds, the path forward hinges on economic data and central bank decisions.

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