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Canada's Economy Just Grew 3.3% — Here's Why That Makes a September Rate Cut Even Less Likely

  Published August 29, 2026 If you've been holding out hope that a slowing economy might finally push the Bank of Canada toward a rate cut, Friday's numbers just closed that door a little further. Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% in the second quarter — the fastest rate since 2023 — and revised figures show the first quarter expanded 0.3% rather than shrinking as originally reported. That confirms Canada never actually slid into a technical recession this year. It's good news for the economy. It's less good news if you were counting on lower borrowing costs anytime soon. What actually drove the growth The rebound was broad-based. Exports posted their strongest performance in 39 months, business investment in factories, equipment and commercial real estate jumped, and consumer spending held up as well. On a per-person basis, output grew at a 3.8% annualized clip — the quickest pace since late 2021, even with Canada...
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Canadian Banks Face Earnings Challenges Amid Commodity Slump

 

Futures for Canada’s main stock index tumbled on Wednesday, tracking a decline in commodity prices. Investors are closely monitoring big bank earnings in Canada and awaiting key inflation data from the United States. Here are the key points:

  1. Market Movement:

    • March futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.6% at 6:52 a.m. ET, mirroring losses in Wall Street peers.
    • The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended slightly lower on Tuesday, with financial shares offsetting gains in energy.

  2. Energy and Materials Sectors:

    • Energy shares are expected to reverse gains due to a 1% decline in oil prices. The prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and a rise in U.S. crude stocks counterbalances the boost from a potential extension to OPEC+ supply curbs.
    • Materials stocks may extend losses as gold prices edge down, influenced by a stronger dollar, and concerns persist about China’s property sector affecting copper prices.

  3. Bank Earnings:

    • Investors continue to analyze quarterly earnings from Canadian banks:
      • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reported a lower first-quarter profit due to larger provisions for loans.
      • National Bank of Canada reported a higher first-quarter profit, cushioned by robust performance in its financial markets unit despite increased loan loss provisions.

  4. Inflation and GDP Data:

    • The U.S. is set to release its gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q4 2023, along with the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation.
    • Investors are also awaiting Canada’s GDP reading.

  5. Commodities Snapshot:

    • Gold futures: $2,036.4 (-0.4%).
    • U.S. crude: $78.1 (-1.0%).
    • Brent crude: $82.95 (-0.8%).

The outlook for Canadian banks in 2024 remains uncertain, with mortgage rates and interest rates playing a pivotal role. Unless there are rate cuts, most Canadian banks are expected to report earnings declines. As investors navigate these headwinds, the path forward hinges on economic data and central bank decisions.

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