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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Dow Leads Gains Amid Earnings Surge

 

In today’s stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) took the lead, rising approximately 0.3%. The broader market also saw positive movement, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbing around 0.2%. Even the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) managed to erase earlier session losses and finish in the green.

Investors are closely monitoring earnings season, which is now halfway done. The question on everyone’s mind: Can strong earnings results reignite the stock rally?

Here are some notable highlights from today’s market:

  1. Spotify (SPOT): Shares of the music streaming giant surged after the company provided robust guidance.

  2. Eli Lilly (LLY): The pharmaceutical company’s stock popped as its 2024 profit forecast exceeded estimates.

  3. New York Community Bank (NYCB): Unfortunately, investor concerns over the health of this commercial real estate lender caused its shares to plummet by more than 22%.

Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve officials added to the market chatter. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized caution in moving interest rates down too soon, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged positive inflation data but stressed that the Fed isn’t fully prepared to tackle higher prices yet.

As the market navigates these dynamics, investors remain vigilant about the possibility of interest rate cuts and the impact on their portfolios. 

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