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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Fast-Food Giants Face Earnings Challenges Amid Middle East Boycotts

 


Fast-food giants are finding themselves in a sticky situation as boycotts in the Middle East take a toll on their earnings. Notable players like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Yum Brands (the parent company of 

In its fourth-quarter earnings report, McDonald’s reported a rare sales miss. Sales in its international licensed markets and corporate sector, including the Middle East, grew by a mere 0.7%, a stark contrast to the robust 16.5% growth seen the previous year. The culprit? The ongoing war in Gaza. The conflict has impacted several markets in the Middle East, leading to a material hit on McDonald’s earnings. The company’s president and CEO, Chris Kempczinski, acknowledged the challenges faced by markets both within and outside the region due to the war and associated misinformation. A viral photo of a McDonald’s franchise in Israel donating free meals to soldiers fueled calls for a boycott, further affecting sales in Middle Eastern and Muslim-majority markets like Indonesia and Malaysia.

Starbucks, too, is feeling the pinch. The coffee giant is forecasting slower growth for the rest of the year, a projection even lower than what analysts had predicted. The company’s earnings have been impacted by the same geopolitical tensions that have affected other fast-food chains. As anti-war activists around the world call for an end to the conflict, companies perceived to have supported Israel or suppressed pro-Palestinian speech on social media are facing scrutiny. Starbucks finds itself caught in the crossfire, with its financial performance reflecting the strain.

Yum Brands, the parent company of Taco Bell, also reported a hit to fourth-quarter sales. The Middle East boycotts have affected the company’s bottom line, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global events and corporate earnings. As the conflict in Gaza continues, businesses like Yum Brands are navigating the delicate balance between their operations and public sentiment.

Burgers aren’t supposed to be political, but recent events have blurred those lines. Fast-food chains, once seen as neutral spaces for quick meals, are now caught up in geopolitical tensions. As the war in Gaza persists, companies must grapple with the impact of their actions and statements. For McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Yum Brands, the Middle East boycotts serve as a stark reminder that even a Happy Meal can carry unintended consequences.


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