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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Fed faces pressure as producer prices surge in January



The U.S. economy showed signs of inflationary pressures in January, as the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 0.9% year-over-year, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

The PPI measures the average change in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, and is often used as an indicator of future consumer inflation. The higher-than-expected PPI in January suggests that the costs of production are increasing, which could eventually be passed on to consumers.

The PPI data comes amid growing debate over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, as some market participants fear that the central bank’s ultra-low interest rates and massive bond-buying program could fuel excessive inflation and asset bubbles.

However, the Fed has repeatedly signaled that it is not concerned about inflation, and that it will keep its accommodative policy until the economy reaches full employment and inflation averages 2% over time.

In a recent speech, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he does not see any need to cut interest rates further, and that he expects the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases later this year.

He also said that he is not worried about the PPI data, as he believes that the rise in producer prices is temporary and will not translate into sustained consumer inflation.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for March 16-17, when it will update its economic projections and provide more guidance on its future actions.

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