Fed to Cut US Rates in June: Economists Weigh In

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to make a move, and economists are closely watching the timing. According to a recent Reuters poll, a slim majority of experts anticipate a rate cut in June. However, the real question is whether the first cut will arrive later than expected, rather than sooner.

Since September, Reuters surveys have consistently predicted that the initial rate cut would occur around the middle of this year. But market sentiment has shifted. Initially pointing to March, expectations have now shifted to May, with June as the most likely time for the first rate reduction.

Despite record highs in stock markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 50 basis points to 4.28% this month alone. Strong economic growth, a tight labor market, and persistent inflation have contributed to this upward trend.

In a recent poll conducted from February 14 to 20, 86 out of 104 economists agreed that the Fed would make its first move next quarter. The majority still expect June as the most likely meeting, while others suggest May. A smaller group predicts the first reduction sometime in the second half of 2024. Notably, no one foresees a rate cut in March.

Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the need for confidence in the disinflation trend before adjusting rates. Despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, the central bank remains cautious. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, recently shifted his forecast for the first Fed cut to June, citing stronger-than-expected growth.

As the Fed navigates economic waters, it aims to avoid repeating past mistakes. The ‘transitory’ inflation blunder has left officials determined not to be caught off guard again. With uncertainty in the air, all eyes are on the central bank’s next move.