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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Fed to Cut US Rates in June: Economists Weigh In

 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to make a move, and economists are closely watching the timing. According to a recent Reuters poll, a slim majority of experts anticipate a rate cut in June. However, the real question is whether the first cut will arrive later than expected, rather than sooner.

Since September, Reuters surveys have consistently predicted that the initial rate cut would occur around the middle of this year. But market sentiment has shifted. Initially pointing to March, expectations have now shifted to May, with June as the most likely time for the first rate reduction.

Despite record highs in stock markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 50 basis points to 4.28% this month alone. Strong economic growth, a tight labor market, and persistent inflation have contributed to this upward trend.

In a recent poll conducted from February 14 to 20, 86 out of 104 economists agreed that the Fed would make its first move next quarter. The majority still expect June as the most likely meeting, while others suggest May. A smaller group predicts the first reduction sometime in the second half of 2024. Notably, no one foresees a rate cut in March.

Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the need for confidence in the disinflation trend before adjusting rates. Despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, the central bank remains cautious. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, recently shifted his forecast for the first Fed cut to June, citing stronger-than-expected growth.

As the Fed navigates economic waters, it aims to avoid repeating past mistakes. The ‘transitory’ inflation blunder has left officials determined not to be caught off guard again. With uncertainty in the air, all eyes are on the central bank’s next move.


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