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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Fed’s stance on interest rates rattles Wall Street


Wall Street recovered some of its losses on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled that it is not planning to cut interest rates anytime soon.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%, following the worst single-day downturn since September on Wednesday.

The Fed left its main interest rate unchanged and said it does not expect to lower it “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward” its 2% target.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank needs more data to confirm that inflation is easing, despite recent signs of slowing wage growth and consumer spending.

“We’re not declaring victory at all,” Powell said. "We have confidence. It has been increasing, but we want to get greater confidence."

Investors were hoping for a more dovish tone from the Fed, as they worry about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks on the global economy.

Some sectors, such as technology and health care, bounced back on Thursday, while others, such as energy and financials, remained under pressure.

Shares of Align Technology, the maker of Invisalign teeth straighteners, surged more than 12% after beating analysts’ expectations for sales and profit.

More economic data is expected on Friday, with the release of the monthly jobs report for January.

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