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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Fed’s stance on interest rates rattles Wall Street


Wall Street recovered some of its losses on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled that it is not planning to cut interest rates anytime soon.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%, following the worst single-day downturn since September on Wednesday.

The Fed left its main interest rate unchanged and said it does not expect to lower it “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward” its 2% target.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank needs more data to confirm that inflation is easing, despite recent signs of slowing wage growth and consumer spending.

“We’re not declaring victory at all,” Powell said. "We have confidence. It has been increasing, but we want to get greater confidence."

Investors were hoping for a more dovish tone from the Fed, as they worry about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks on the global economy.

Some sectors, such as technology and health care, bounced back on Thursday, while others, such as energy and financials, remained under pressure.

Shares of Align Technology, the maker of Invisalign teeth straighteners, surged more than 12% after beating analysts’ expectations for sales and profit.

More economic data is expected on Friday, with the release of the monthly jobs report for January.

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