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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Markets Rally: S&P 500 Hits Record High Amid Recovery






On Thursday, the S&P/TSX composite index surged 333.29 points, closing at 21,222.69, marking a 1.6% gain. The energy sector led the charge, propelling Canada’s main stock index to new heights. But it wasn’t just the Great White North celebrating; across the border, U.S. markets also joined the party.

The S&P 500, a bellwether for American equities, etched a fresh all-time high. In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 348.85 points, reaching 38,773.12. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite danced upward by 47.03 points, settling at 15,906.17.

What’s fueling this market resurgence? Mixed messages from inflation readings have been playing a game of tug-of-war with investor sentiment. Earlier this week, hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI numbers triggered a selloff, but the subsequent days saw a remarkable recovery. Kevin Burkett, portfolio manager at Victoria-based Burkett Asset Management, explains, “The numbers themselves aren’t bad. I think that the issue is people’s expectations, in particular at the end of December, had become so aligned to this view that we would see imminent and steep rate cuts.”

However, Burkett tempers expectations. “Right now, there’s very little chance that either the Bank of Canada or the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in March,” he asserts. The specter of stubbornly elevated inflation looms large, making rate cuts a precarious proposition.

Recent earnings reports in Canada underscore the divergence between companies. While Manulife soared nearly nine percent after reporting robust earnings, Canadian Tire grappled with tougher economic conditions and softer consumer spending. Their stock price remained relatively stable.

As the markets sway, the Canadian dollar dances at 74.11 cents US, and commodities play their part. The April crude oil contract surged US$1.23, settling at US$77.59 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold glimmered, with the April gold contract adding US$10.60, reaching US$2,014.90 per ounce. Copper, too, caught the bullish wave, climbing six cents to US$3.76 per pound.

In this financial tango, investors watch closely, balancing optimism with caution. The rhythm of recovery continues, and the markets sway to their own beat.


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