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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Record-Breaking February: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach New Heights

 


Investors witnessed an impressive rally in the stock market during February, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieving remarkable milestones. Let’s delve into the details of this historic month.

S&P 500: A Stellar Performance

The S&P 500 soared to new heights, closing at 5,095.88, marking an all-time high. This gain of 0.5% on the day capped off the best February for the index since 2015. The positive momentum was fueled by several factors, including a crucial inflation reading and reassuring economic indicators.

Nasdaq Composite: Breaking Records

The Nasdaq Composite stole the spotlight, closing at 16,091.92, its highest close on record. This achievement was particularly significant as it marked the first record close for the Nasdaq since November 2021. The tech-heavy index surged 0.9% on Thursday, reflecting the robust performance of technology companies.

Inflation and Market Sentiment

The closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index grew 2.4% year-over-year in January, slightly lower than the previous month’s 2.6%. The “core” PCE, the measure often emphasized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, came in at 2.8%, down from 2.9% in the prior month. Policymakers continue to monitor inflation closely, emphasizing the need for signs of easing price pressures before committing to rate cuts.

Bitcoin’s Resilience

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) maintained its position above $62,000, coming close to its all-time high of $64,000. The leading digital currency’s recent rally has been unprecedented, reminiscent of the pre-“crypto winter” surge in 2022.

Earnings Outlook

As we wrap up the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 is projected to achieve 4% earnings growth compared to the same period last year. Notably, the outlook for earnings growth in the current quarter remains positive, defying the usual downward revisions seen during this time.

In summary, February 2024 will be remembered as a month of remarkable achievements in the stock market. Investors remain cautiously optimistic, closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation trends. As we move forward, the resilience of both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite provides hope for continued growth.


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