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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Stocks Rebound After Tuesday’s Sell-Off: A Resilient Recovery

 

On Wednesday, US stocks staged a remarkable comeback, recovering from the previous day’s sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected inflation data. Investors witnessed a swift turnaround as major indices regained their footing.

Key Highlights

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): The blue-chip index rebounded by 0.4%, reclaiming ground after a 500-point drop—its worst performance since March 2022
  • S&P 500 (GSPC): The broader market index surged by nearly 1%, demonstrating resilience in the face of recent volatility.
  • Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Tech stocks also participated in the recovery, climbing approximately 1.3%.

The surprise consumer inflation report had initially spooked the market, but calm is gradually settling in. Investors are now adjusting their expectations regarding interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that one inflation report should not cause undue panic, and the underlying trend still points to inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Lyft (LYFT), the ride-hailing giant, experienced a wild ride of its own. After an initial 67% surge following a financial update, the stock corrected an error in its statement, ultimately closing up a more modest 35% during Wednesday’s trading session.

As the market recalibrates, investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank policies. The path forward remains uncertain, but the resilience displayed by stocks in the face of adversity is a testament to their enduring appeal.


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