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CMHC Just Cut Its Housing Forecast — What It Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Renewing

  Published July 28, 2026 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation quietly downgraded its outlook for the rest of 2026 last week, and the new numbers are worth a look no matter which side of the housing market you're standing on. The federal housing agency's Summer 2026 update now calls for slower growth, softer home prices, fewer new builds and continued easing in rental markets right through the end of the year — with a split that leaves Ontario and B.C. looking a lot different from the Prairies and Quebec. Here's what's actually in the update, and what it means for your specific situation. What CMHC changed The agency's baseline call for 2026 is a Canadian economy growing at just 0.7%, with high borrowing costs, weak population growth and cautious buyers keeping a lid on demand even as affordability has technically improved. The practical result, nationally: Housing starts are expected to fall to about 241,400 units this year, down from 259,028 in 2025 Resale acti...

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Toronto Real Estate: A January Surge in Home Sales

 

In a remarkable turn of events, the Greater Toronto housing market witnessed a 37% surge in home sales during the month of January. This impressive growth comes as a beacon of hope for both buyers and sellers, signaling a dynamic shift in the real estate landscape.

Key Highlights:

  1. Sales Momentum: A staggering 4,223 homes changed hands last month, marking a substantial 22.9% month-over-month increase from December. The allure of lower borrowing costs, particularly associated with fixed-rate mortgages, enticed buyers back into the market.

  2. Tightening Market: While new listings saw a 6.1% increase compared to January 2023, they failed to keep pace with the surging demand. As a result, the market has become tighter than it was a year ago.

  3. Across Housing Categories: The sales surge was not limited to specific housing typesTownhouses led the charge with a remarkable 54.5% annual increase, closely followed by semi-detached homes at 42.9%.

  4. Average Home Price: Despite the robust sales activity, the average home price experienced a slight dip. It dropped one percent from the same time last year, settling at $1,026,703. This figure also represents a 5.4% decrease from the final month of 2023.

  5. Looking Ahead: TRREB President Jennifer Pearce remains optimistic. If inflation cools off as predicted by the Bank of Canada, resulting in lower interest rates, more buyers are likely to re-enter the market. This includes those currently grappling with high rents, eagerly seeking their first home.

The Greater Toronto housing market’s resilience and adaptability continue to shape the city’s real estate narrative. As we move forward, all eyes remain on the evolving dynamics, ready to seize opportunities in this dynamic landscape. 

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