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The Mortgage Renewal Wave Just Peaked — Here's What the Data Actually Shows

Published August 30, 2026 For three years, "the mortgage renewal wall" has been the scariest phrase in Canadian personal finance — the idea that a flood of ultra-cheap, pandemic-era mortgages would come due at much higher rates and trigger a wave of forced sales. That wall is now mostly behind us. Two new 2026 surveys, one from Royal LePage and one from Rates.ca, show what actually happened when it hit. The short version: it hurt, budgets tightened hard for a lot of people, but the mass default many feared simply didn't show up. The last big group is renewing right now Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey, released August 19 and based on a Leger poll of 1,127 Canadians renewing this year, pins down where things stand: about 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are five-year, fixed-payment loans taken out during the 2020–2022 ultra-low-rate window, and this is their last major renewal wave. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate sat at just 0.25% through m...
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Toronto Real Estate: A January Surge in Home Sales

 

In a remarkable turn of events, the Greater Toronto housing market witnessed a 37% surge in home sales during the month of January. This impressive growth comes as a beacon of hope for both buyers and sellers, signaling a dynamic shift in the real estate landscape.

Key Highlights:

  1. Sales Momentum: A staggering 4,223 homes changed hands last month, marking a substantial 22.9% month-over-month increase from December. The allure of lower borrowing costs, particularly associated with fixed-rate mortgages, enticed buyers back into the market.

  2. Tightening Market: While new listings saw a 6.1% increase compared to January 2023, they failed to keep pace with the surging demand. As a result, the market has become tighter than it was a year ago.

  3. Across Housing Categories: The sales surge was not limited to specific housing typesTownhouses led the charge with a remarkable 54.5% annual increase, closely followed by semi-detached homes at 42.9%.

  4. Average Home Price: Despite the robust sales activity, the average home price experienced a slight dip. It dropped one percent from the same time last year, settling at $1,026,703. This figure also represents a 5.4% decrease from the final month of 2023.

  5. Looking Ahead: TRREB President Jennifer Pearce remains optimistic. If inflation cools off as predicted by the Bank of Canada, resulting in lower interest rates, more buyers are likely to re-enter the market. This includes those currently grappling with high rents, eagerly seeking their first home.

The Greater Toronto housing market’s resilience and adaptability continue to shape the city’s real estate narrative. As we move forward, all eyes remain on the evolving dynamics, ready to seize opportunities in this dynamic landscape. 

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