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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Toronto Real Estate: A January Surge in Home Sales

 

In a remarkable turn of events, the Greater Toronto housing market witnessed a 37% surge in home sales during the month of January. This impressive growth comes as a beacon of hope for both buyers and sellers, signaling a dynamic shift in the real estate landscape.

Key Highlights:

  1. Sales Momentum: A staggering 4,223 homes changed hands last month, marking a substantial 22.9% month-over-month increase from December. The allure of lower borrowing costs, particularly associated with fixed-rate mortgages, enticed buyers back into the market.

  2. Tightening Market: While new listings saw a 6.1% increase compared to January 2023, they failed to keep pace with the surging demand. As a result, the market has become tighter than it was a year ago.

  3. Across Housing Categories: The sales surge was not limited to specific housing typesTownhouses led the charge with a remarkable 54.5% annual increase, closely followed by semi-detached homes at 42.9%.

  4. Average Home Price: Despite the robust sales activity, the average home price experienced a slight dip. It dropped one percent from the same time last year, settling at $1,026,703. This figure also represents a 5.4% decrease from the final month of 2023.

  5. Looking Ahead: TRREB President Jennifer Pearce remains optimistic. If inflation cools off as predicted by the Bank of Canada, resulting in lower interest rates, more buyers are likely to re-enter the market. This includes those currently grappling with high rents, eagerly seeking their first home.

The Greater Toronto housing market’s resilience and adaptability continue to shape the city’s real estate narrative. As we move forward, all eyes remain on the evolving dynamics, ready to seize opportunities in this dynamic landscape. 

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