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BoC Decision Day: What a Hold at 2.25% Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 2, 2026 Tomorrow's date has been sitting at the bottom of every Canadian Money Brief for weeks, and it's finally here. The Bank of Canada announces its overnight rate decision on Wednesday, September 2 at 9:45 a.m. ET, with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference at 10:30. Every economist polled by Reuters — all 35 of them — expects the same outcome: a hold at 2.25%, the eighth straight meeting without a move. That's the headline. The more useful question for your wallet is what a "boring" hold actually does — and doesn't do — to your mortgage, and why two of the Big Six banks think the boring streak is about to end. Why a hold is the almost-certain call The Bank has a genuinely awkward setup heading into this meeting. On one side, the economy just posted its best quarter in years: GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized pace in the second quarter, well ahead of the Bank's own 2.5% forecast, and July's jobs report added a blowout ...
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US Inflation Surges in January, Raising Concerns for Fed and Markets

 

The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January from the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase, according to data released on Tuesday. The annual inflation rate jumped to 3.1%, the highest level since March 2021, and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The surge in inflation was driven by higher costs of energy, food, shelter, and transportation, reflecting the impact of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising demand amid the economic recovery from the pandemic. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.4% in January, the largest monthly gain since July 2021.

The higher-than-expected inflation report rattled the financial markets, as investors feared that the Fed might have to tighten its monetary policy sooner than anticipated to prevent the economy from overheating. US stock futures fell after the release of the data, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.09%, the highest level since January 2020.

The Fed has maintained that the current inflation spike is transitory and largely reflects the base effects of low prices a year ago, as well as the temporary factors related to the reopening of the economy. The central bank has signaled that it will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero and continue its bond-buying program until the labor market and inflation reach its goals.

However, some analysts and policymakers have warned that the inflation pressures could persist and become more widespread, posing a threat to the economic outlook and the Fed’s credibility. They have urged the Fed to act more aggressively to rein in inflation and prevent a loss of confidence in its ability to maintain price stability.

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