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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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US Inflation Surges in January, Raising Concerns for Fed and Markets

 

The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January from the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 0.2% increase, according to data released on Tuesday. The annual inflation rate jumped to 3.1%, the highest level since March 2021, and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The surge in inflation was driven by higher costs of energy, food, shelter, and transportation, reflecting the impact of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising demand amid the economic recovery from the pandemic. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.4% in January, the largest monthly gain since July 2021.

The higher-than-expected inflation report rattled the financial markets, as investors feared that the Fed might have to tighten its monetary policy sooner than anticipated to prevent the economy from overheating. US stock futures fell after the release of the data, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.09%, the highest level since January 2020.

The Fed has maintained that the current inflation spike is transitory and largely reflects the base effects of low prices a year ago, as well as the temporary factors related to the reopening of the economy. The central bank has signaled that it will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero and continue its bond-buying program until the labor market and inflation reach its goals.

However, some analysts and policymakers have warned that the inflation pressures could persist and become more widespread, posing a threat to the economic outlook and the Fed’s credibility. They have urged the Fed to act more aggressively to rein in inflation and prevent a loss of confidence in its ability to maintain price stability.

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