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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Wall Street Treads Cautiously Amid Earnings Surge

 


As the earnings season reaches its midway point, Wall Street finds itself in a delicate balancing act. Here’s a snapshot of today’s market dynamics:

  • S&P 500 (GSPC) futures edged up by less than 0.1% before the opening bell.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) futures experienced a marginal decline, shedding less than 0.1%.

Investors are closely monitoring corporate results, but optimism for a March interest rate cut is waning. Recent data confirms the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation through interest rate hikes. Notable highlights include:

  1. Strong Services Sector: A report on Monday revealed that U.S. services industries are growing faster than expected, reflecting economic strength.
  1. Labor Market Resilience: Friday’s robust jobs report indicated a still-strong labor market, despite ongoing layoffs.

Market sentiment suggests that the Fed’s projected interest rate cuts may be pushed back to June, rather than May. Traders are adjusting their expectations accordingl.

In equities trading, some key movers include:

  • Tesla (TSLA): The electric car company continues to slide, losing over 2% in premarket trading. Concerns about recalls and future earnings weigh on investor confidence.
  • FMC: The Philadelphia chemical maker saw a 14% premarket tumble after falling short of Wall Street expectations in sales and profit.
  • Spotify (SPOT): The music streaming and podcast platform surged more than 6% after reporting stronger-than-expected subscriber growth, despite revenue missing analyst targets.

As we await earnings reports from heavyweights like CVS Health, The Walt Disney Co., and PepsiCo, the market remains cautiously optimistic. Stay tuned for further developments as the earnings season unfolds! 

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