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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada’s Carbon Price Set to Rise on April 1: What You Need to Know

Canada’s carbon price is poised to increase on April 1, despite some provincial leaders expressing concerns about affordability. Let’s delve into the details:

The impending carbon price hike is not unexpected. It’s a fundamental policy of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government. By putting a price on pollution, the aim is to encourage people to use fewer fossil fuels, ultimately reducing emissions from the economy. Annual increases are part of the government’s overall pricing scheme, with plans extending until at least 2030.

For most Canadians, the impact of the April 1 increase will be most noticeable at the gas station and on energy bills. Here’s how it breaks down:

  • Gasoline: The carbon tax will add 17 cents per liter.
  • Diesel: Expect an additional 21 cents per liter.
  • Natural Gas: The increase amounts to 15 cents per cubic meter.

Keep in mind that British Columbia, Quebec, and the Northwest Territories have their own carbon pricing systems in place, while other provinces and territories fall under the federal backstop plan.

While the carbon price does play a role in household affordability, it’s essential to recognize that its effects are relatively small compared to global oil prices and corporate profitability. Canadians may also experience indirect effects, such as transportation costs influencing food prices.

In summary, Canada’s commitment to tackling climate change involves incremental carbon price increases, aiming for a greener and more sustainable future.

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