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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Canadian Business Insolvencies Double in January

 

The Canadian business landscape faced a significant upheaval in January as business insolvencies more than doubled compared to the same period last year. This surge in insolvencies also surpassed pre-pandemic levels for the month.

The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy reported 759 business insolvencies in January, marking a 42.4% increase from December and a staggering 129.3% rise from January 2023. To put this into perspective, back in January 2020—before the pandemic began—there were only 308 business insolvencies.

These business insolvencies encompass both bankruptcies and proposals (where some or all of the debt is paid back). The situation was further complicated by the $60,000 Canada Emergency Business Account loans, which were distributed to nearly 900,000 businesses and non-profit organizations to help them weather the pandemic storm. Up to one-third of this loan could be forgiven if the remaining two-thirds were repaid by January 18. Otherwise, the debt transformed into a three-year loan with a five percent annual interest rate. Businesses were also given the option to refinance their loans before the end of March and still qualify for partial forgiveness.

However, many businesses missed the January deadline due to other pandemic-related debts. The impact of these insolvencies extends beyond the numbers reported, as numerous small businesses simply shut their doors without formally filing for insolvency. In the words of Simon Gaudreault, Chief Economist and Vice-President of Research at the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), “Insolvencies are just the tip of the iceberg.”

The sectors hit hardest by this surge in insolvencies include accommodation and food services, retail trade, and construction. While business bankruptcies rose significantly year-over-year, proposals also saw an increase. Consumer insolvencies followed suit, growing by 23.5% compared to the previous year but remaining lower than in January 2020.

As the Canadian economy grapples with pandemic debt and higher interest rates, policymakers and business owners alike will closely monitor the situation. The real toll on businesses may be even greater than the reported numbers, emphasizing the need for continued support and vigilance.


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