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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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February Inflation: Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected

 

Inflation in the United States continued its upward trend in February, surpassing expectations and raising concerns for policymakers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 0.4% from January, in line with month-over-month expectations. However, the year-over-year increase was 3.2%, exceeding estimates of 3.1%.

Here are the key takeaways:

  1. Core CPI: Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI increased by 3.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.7%.

  2. Gasoline Prices: Rising gas prices played a significant role in pushing up overall inflation. The surge in energy costs contributed to the unexpected acceleration in consumer prices.

  3. Federal Reserve Implications: The Federal Reserve closely monitors inflation data to guide its monetary policy decisions. With the latest CPI report, the central bank faces the challenge of balancing price pressures while ensuring economic stability.

  4. Market Impact: Investors are closely watching inflation trends, as they can influence interest rates and investment strategies. The unexpected rise in February’s inflation may impact market sentiment and expectations.

As the Fed’s next policy decision approaches, economists and policymakers will closely analyze this data. The question remains: Will the central bank take action to address inflationary pressures, or will it maintain its current stance? Only time will tell, but February’s CPI report provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers alike.

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