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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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Iran’s Currency Hits Record Low Amid Nowruz Celebrations

 


On Sunday, Iran’s currency plummeted to a record low, reaching 613,500 rials to the dollar. This significant devaluation occurred as Iranians celebrated the Persian New Year. The streets of Tehran’s main exchange hub in Ferdowsi Street were abuzz with people attempting to exchange their rials for foreign currency. However, most exchange shops remained closed due to the ongoing Nowruz holidays, which span from March 20 to April 2.

Holiday Impact on Exchange Rates

  • Mohsen, a 32-year-old exchange shop employee, explained that the holiday season contributed to the low prices. He stated, “The price is not real; the demand for purchasing dollars is very high, but there are just a few exchange shops open.” Many Iranians echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the scarcity of open shops during the festive period.
  • Mojtaba, a 49-year-old father, expressed shock at the rapid decline: “The rial fell 5% compared to the last six days, while the whole country is on vacation!”
  • Niloufar, a 28-year-old wife, and her husband Behzad, 30, had initially booked a discounted weeklong tour of Turkey. However, with the currency depreciation, they now faced the prospect of paying full price for their trip.

Economic Struggles and Inflation

  • The exchange rate significantly impacts other markets, including housing and rentals. Notably, the rial’s value has eroded dramatically over the years. In 2015, it was worth about one-twentieth of its current value when Iran signed a nuclear accord with world powers.
  • Since then, the rial has fallen from 32,000 rials to the dollar to the hundreds of thousands. In February 2023, it briefly reached a nadir of 600,000 reals to the dollar and has not risen above 439,000 since then.
  • The government’s Statistics Center reported an inflation rate of 42.5% for February 2024, while the Central Bank cited a higher figure of over 46%. The discrepancy remains unexplained.

Tensions and Failed Diplomacy

  • Iran’s relations with the West have been strained since then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear deal. President Joe Biden expressed willingness to re-enter the agreement, but formal talks collapsed in August 2022.
  • Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, further complicating nuclear diplomacy with Iran.

As Iranians celebrate Nowruz, their economic challenges persist, and the value of their currency remains precarious.

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