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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Iran’s Currency Hits Record Low Amid Nowruz Celebrations

 


On Sunday, Iran’s currency plummeted to a record low, reaching 613,500 rials to the dollar. This significant devaluation occurred as Iranians celebrated the Persian New Year. The streets of Tehran’s main exchange hub in Ferdowsi Street were abuzz with people attempting to exchange their rials for foreign currency. However, most exchange shops remained closed due to the ongoing Nowruz holidays, which span from March 20 to April 2.

Holiday Impact on Exchange Rates

  • Mohsen, a 32-year-old exchange shop employee, explained that the holiday season contributed to the low prices. He stated, “The price is not real; the demand for purchasing dollars is very high, but there are just a few exchange shops open.” Many Iranians echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the scarcity of open shops during the festive period.
  • Mojtaba, a 49-year-old father, expressed shock at the rapid decline: “The rial fell 5% compared to the last six days, while the whole country is on vacation!”
  • Niloufar, a 28-year-old wife, and her husband Behzad, 30, had initially booked a discounted weeklong tour of Turkey. However, with the currency depreciation, they now faced the prospect of paying full price for their trip.

Economic Struggles and Inflation

  • The exchange rate significantly impacts other markets, including housing and rentals. Notably, the rial’s value has eroded dramatically over the years. In 2015, it was worth about one-twentieth of its current value when Iran signed a nuclear accord with world powers.
  • Since then, the rial has fallen from 32,000 rials to the dollar to the hundreds of thousands. In February 2023, it briefly reached a nadir of 600,000 reals to the dollar and has not risen above 439,000 since then.
  • The government’s Statistics Center reported an inflation rate of 42.5% for February 2024, while the Central Bank cited a higher figure of over 46%. The discrepancy remains unexplained.

Tensions and Failed Diplomacy

  • Iran’s relations with the West have been strained since then-U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear deal. President Joe Biden expressed willingness to re-enter the agreement, but formal talks collapsed in August 2022.
  • Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, further complicating nuclear diplomacy with Iran.

As Iranians celebrate Nowruz, their economic challenges persist, and the value of their currency remains precarious.

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