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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Navigating Your Mortgage Renewal in 2024: Tips for Securing the Best Rate


As 2024 unfolds, many Canadians find themselves facing mortgage renewals amid a backdrop of rising interest rates. If you’re among them, fear not! Here’s a concise guide on how to navigate your mortgage renewal and secure the best rate:

  • Renewal Statement: If your mortgage is with a federally regulated financial institution (such as a bank), they are legally required to provide you with a renewal statement at least 21 days before your maturity date (the last day of your existing mortgage term). Most lenders reach out even earlier, typically between four and six months in advance.
  • Interest Rate Offer: As part of this communication, your lender will present you with a new interest rate. Be prepared—the landscape has changed. While sub-3% rates were common in 2019, the average interest rate for a five-year fixed mortgage now stands at 5.29%. Brace yourself for potential payment increases.
  • The Reality: Two years of aggressive interest rate hikes have left their mark. By the end of 2024, the Bank of Canada predicts that 65% of Canadians will experience an increase in their mortgage payments.
  • Average Increases: A Bank of Canada analysis from last year revealed that those renewing in 2024 with a variable-rate mortgage and fixed payments could face an average increase of 24.5%. Meanwhile, those with a fixed-rate mortgage (term less than five years) might see an increase of 23.1%.
  • Existing Lender Advantage: If you’re renewing with your current lender, you won’t need to re-qualify or prove affordability at these higher rates. However, switching lenders requires going through the qualification process.
  • Shop Around: Don’t settle for the first offer. Explore other lenders and compare rates. Negotiate with your current lender—they might offer a discounted interest rate below what’s quoted in your renewal letter.
  • Be Prepared: Gather proof of offers from other financial institutions or mortgage brokers. Having this information on hand will empower you during negotiations.

Mortgage renewals can be daunting, but with the right approach, you can secure a favorable rate. Remember, knowledge is power—so stay informed, compare options, and make the most of your mortgage renewal in 2024.

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