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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Wall Street braces for inflation data amid Fed uncertainty

Wall Street is set to open lower on Monday as investors await the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4% ahead of the opening bell.

The main focus this week will be the government’s consumer prices report, due on Tuesday, which will show how much inflation has eased or worsened in February. Inflation has been a major concern for the markets, as it erodes the value of future earnings and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than expected.

The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, bringing its benchmark rate to a 23-year high of about 5.4%. The central bank has said it expects to cut rates three times in 2024, but has not given any clear signal on the timing of the first cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress last week, but did not offer any new insights into the Fed’s outlook or plans. Powell said the Fed would continue to monitor the economic data and act as appropriate to support the recovery.

Investors will also pay attention to other economic indicators this week, such as the producer prices index, the retail sales report, and the consumer sentiment survey.

Meanwhile, the earnings season is winding down, with a few notable companies left to report their results. Oracle, Kohl’s, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General are among the companies scheduled to release their quarterly numbers this week.

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