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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Wall Street braces for inflation data amid Fed uncertainty

Wall Street is set to open lower on Monday as investors await the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.4% ahead of the opening bell.

The main focus this week will be the government’s consumer prices report, due on Tuesday, which will show how much inflation has eased or worsened in February. Inflation has been a major concern for the markets, as it erodes the value of future earnings and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than expected.

The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, bringing its benchmark rate to a 23-year high of about 5.4%. The central bank has said it expects to cut rates three times in 2024, but has not given any clear signal on the timing of the first cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress last week, but did not offer any new insights into the Fed’s outlook or plans. Powell said the Fed would continue to monitor the economic data and act as appropriate to support the recovery.

Investors will also pay attention to other economic indicators this week, such as the producer prices index, the retail sales report, and the consumer sentiment survey.

Meanwhile, the earnings season is winding down, with a few notable companies left to report their results. Oracle, Kohl’s, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General are among the companies scheduled to release their quarterly numbers this week.

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