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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Anticipation Builds as US Stocks Climb Before Inflation Data Release

 

In a market suspended in anticipation, U.S. stocks have edged higher as investors await the pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. The upcoming report is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. With the CPI data set to be released, there’s a palpable tension among investors, who are keenly aware that the figures could signal a shift in economic policy.

The CPI data, which provides insight into inflation trends, is particularly significant given the recent economic landscape. Investors are wrestling with uncertainty around interest rates, and the March CPI report is seen as a potential turning point. If inflation shows signs of cooling, it could invite a policy shift as early as June.

As the clock ticks down to the data release, the S&P 500 has seen a modest climb, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also seen gains, albeit minimal. This cautious optimism reflects a broader trend of resilience in the face of inflationary pressures and interest rate uncertainties.

The bond market, too, has felt the ripples of anticipation, with Treasury yields reaching new highs for the year as investors adjust their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The outcome of the CPI report could either reinforce or upend these expectations, making it a critical moment for both the stock and bond markets.

In summary, the U.S. stock market today is a tableau of cautious hope, with investors collectively holding their breath for the CPI data that will inevitably steer the course of the economy in the months to come.

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