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TSX Eyes Gains as Trump-Xi Summit Looms and Oil Steadies Near $95

Canadian Money Brief · Monday, May 11, 2026 Canadian equities are set for a cautious but constructive open this Monday as investors balance a packed macro calendar against an energy sector still reeling from one of its most volatile weeks in recent memory. TSX at a Glance The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 34,077.76 , up 221 points (+0.65%) to cap a week dominated by whipsaw oil moves and a fragile Middle East ceasefire. The energy sector has led TSX gains over the past seven days — up roughly 5% — even as WTI crude fell about 7% on the week, settling near $95.42 per barrel . That apparent contradiction reflects Canadian producers' longer-term optimism on supply tightness rather than any single day's price swing. For the year, the TSX is up approximately 35%, outpacing most major global benchmarks. The Big Story: Trump Heads to Beijing All eyes this week will be on Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in China on Wednesday , with formal ...
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Bank of Canada Holds Key Interest Rate at 5% Amid Speculation of a June Cut

 



The Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5% in its third update of the year. However, the central bank has hinted that a rate cut in June is “within the realm of possibilities.” Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized the need for sustained progress on inflation before any decisive action is taken.

Recent data has fueled speculation about a potential rate cut. Notably, core inflation has eased, and the jobs market has stalled. While the BoC expects core inflation to continue its gradual decline, rising gas prices may keep the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hovering around 3% in the coming months.

Governor Macklem emphasized that the central bank will closely monitor inflation trends. The decline in core inflation must be more than a temporary blip to warrant a rate cut. The BoC seeks assurance that this downward trend is sustainable.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had anticipated the BoC’s decision to maintain the key overnight rate at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting. However, recent developments have shifted expectations. BMO Capital Markets’ Canadian rates and macro strategist, Benjamin Reitzes, described the BoC’s statement as “mildly more dovish.” While June remains a possibility, the upcoming CPI reports will play a crucial role in shaping the central bank’s next move.

In summary, the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold the rate steady reflects cautious optimism. As we approach June, all eyes will be on inflation indicators, determining whether the path to price stability warrants a rate adjustment. 

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