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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada’s Inflation Edges Up to 2.9% in March: A Closer Look


In March 2024, Canada’s annual inflation rate nudged up to 2.9%, driven by several factors including rising gasoline prices, mortgage interest costs, and rent. Let’s delve into the details of this economic development.

Key Points:

  1. Gasoline Prices Surge: The surge in gasoline prices played a significant role in pushing up the inflation rate. As global energy markets fluctuate, consumers are feeling the impact at the pump.

  2. Mortgage Interest and Rent Costs: Alongside fuel, mortgage interest costs and rent contributed to the overall increase. These expenses are closely monitored by households and can significantly affect their budgets.

  3. Bank of Canada’s Watchful Eye: The Bank of Canada, which recently maintained its key interest rate at 5%, will closely scrutinize this inflation report. While the central bank remains cautious, it acknowledges the possibility of adjusting interest rates in the future.

  4. Budget Implications: The release of the inflation report coincides with the federal government’s budget announcement. Policymakers will consider these inflationary trends as they shape economic policies.

As Canada grapples with inflationary pressures, policymakers and citizens alike must stay vigilant. The delicate balance between economic growth and price stability remains a priority for the nation. The coming months will reveal whether this upward trend persists or moderates.


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