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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Federal Budget Aims for “Generational Fairness” Amidst Economic Challenges

 

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled this year’s federal budget, emphasizing a commitment to “generational fairness” for younger Canadians. The proposed economic blueprint, with projected spending of $535 billion, aims to address the country’s economic strengths while tackling a $39.8 billion deficit.

Key Highlights:

  1. Generational Equity: The budget seeks to balance the scales by raising taxes on those who have already benefited from Canada’s economic prosperity. This approach aims to create a fairer distribution of resources across different age groups.

  2. Spending Priorities: The $535 billion budget allocates funds to critical areas such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and climate initiatives. Investments in these sectors are essential for long-term economic stability.

  3. Deficit Management: While the deficit remains a concern, the government is committed to prudent fiscal management. The deficit reduction strategy will involve targeted spending cuts and revenue-enhancing measures.

  4. Economic Recovery: As the country emerges from the pandemic, the budget aims to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and support businesses. Investments in innovation, research, and development play a crucial role in this recovery.

  5. Sustainable Taxation: The proposed tax adjustments will ensure that the burden is shared equitably among different income groups. By targeting those who can afford it, the government aims to maintain fiscal sustainability.

In summary, this budget reflects a delicate balancing act between addressing immediate challenges and securing a prosperous future for all Canadians. As the economic landscape evolves, the government’s commitment to generational fairness remains at the forefront of its policy decisions.

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