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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Israel Strikes Iran in Narrow Attack Amid Escalation Fears

Israel has carried out a retaliatory strike against Iran, according to US officials. The Israeli military operation comes after Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israeli territory. Tensions in the region remain high, with both countries engaging in a series of retaliatory strikes.

Here’s what we know so far:

  1. Military Operation: Israel warned the Biden administration that a strike was imminent within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Israelis assured their US counterparts that Iran’s nuclear facilities would not be targeted.

  2. Explosions Near Isfahan: Iranian state media reported explosions near a major airbase close to the city of Isfahan. Air defense batteries were activated in response. Isfahan is home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. State television described all sites in the area as “fully safe” despite the reported explosions.

  3. Suspension of Flights: Dubai-based carriers Emirates and FlyDubai diverted flights around western Iran, suggesting airspace closures. Iran later announced the suspension of flights over some cities.

  4. Escalation Context: Iran previously launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles toward Israel in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus. Iran’s foreign minister warned that if Israel retaliates, Tehran’s response would be “decisive, definitive, and regretful” for Israel.

As tensions persist, the situation remains fluid, and world leaders are closely monitoring developments in the region. The delicate balance between retaliation and de-escalation hangs in the balance.



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