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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Israel Strikes Iran in Narrow Attack Amid Escalation Fears

Israel has carried out a retaliatory strike against Iran, according to US officials. The Israeli military operation comes after Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israeli territory. Tensions in the region remain high, with both countries engaging in a series of retaliatory strikes.

Here’s what we know so far:

  1. Military Operation: Israel warned the Biden administration that a strike was imminent within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Israelis assured their US counterparts that Iran’s nuclear facilities would not be targeted.

  2. Explosions Near Isfahan: Iranian state media reported explosions near a major airbase close to the city of Isfahan. Air defense batteries were activated in response. Isfahan is home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. State television described all sites in the area as “fully safe” despite the reported explosions.

  3. Suspension of Flights: Dubai-based carriers Emirates and FlyDubai diverted flights around western Iran, suggesting airspace closures. Iran later announced the suspension of flights over some cities.

  4. Escalation Context: Iran previously launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles toward Israel in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus. Iran’s foreign minister warned that if Israel retaliates, Tehran’s response would be “decisive, definitive, and regretful” for Israel.

As tensions persist, the situation remains fluid, and world leaders are closely monitoring developments in the region. The delicate balance between retaliation and de-escalation hangs in the balance.



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