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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Israel Strikes Iran in Narrow Attack Amid Escalation Fears

Israel has carried out a retaliatory strike against Iran, according to US officials. The Israeli military operation comes after Iran’s massive drone and missile attack on Israeli territory. Tensions in the region remain high, with both countries engaging in a series of retaliatory strikes.

Here’s what we know so far:

  1. Military Operation: Israel warned the Biden administration that a strike was imminent within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Israelis assured their US counterparts that Iran’s nuclear facilities would not be targeted.

  2. Explosions Near Isfahan: Iranian state media reported explosions near a major airbase close to the city of Isfahan. Air defense batteries were activated in response. Isfahan is home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including the underground Natanz enrichment site. State television described all sites in the area as “fully safe” despite the reported explosions.

  3. Suspension of Flights: Dubai-based carriers Emirates and FlyDubai diverted flights around western Iran, suggesting airspace closures. Iran later announced the suspension of flights over some cities.

  4. Escalation Context: Iran previously launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles toward Israel in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus. Iran’s foreign minister warned that if Israel retaliates, Tehran’s response would be “decisive, definitive, and regretful” for Israel.

As tensions persist, the situation remains fluid, and world leaders are closely monitoring developments in the region. The delicate balance between retaliation and de-escalation hangs in the balance.



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