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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Market Resilience Amid Rising Yields and Positive Earnings

 

In a display of resilience, the S&P 500 closed marginally higher after a session marked by volatility, as investors navigated the dual forces of climbing Treasury yields and encouraging corporate earnings, particularly from tech behemoths.

  • Treasury Yields Climb: An auction of $70 billion in five-year U.S. Treasury notes drove yields higher, influencing equity markets. The 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.6459%.
  • Tech Giants’ Earnings: Investors’ attention was captured by earnings reports from major technology companies. Meta Platforms saw a dip in after-hours trading, while Microsoft and Alphabet are poised to report later in the week.
  • Tesla’s Surge: Tesla’s stock leapt by 12% as plans to increase production and introduce more affordable models outweighed its weaker quarterly results.
  • Economic Indicators Awaited: Markets are now looking ahead to the first quarter GDP data and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which could signal the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.

Investors remain cautious yet optimistic as they parse through the latest financial data, seeking signs of stability in a fluctuating economic landscape.

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