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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Market Resilience: US Futures Recover After Initial Shock from Israel-Iran Tensions


In the wake of heightened geopolitical tensions following an Israeli strike on Iranian targets, US stock market futures experienced a significant downturn. The initial reaction saw a flight to traditional safe havens, with gold prices surging and oil markets fluctuating. However, as the day progressed, a sense of stability began to return to the markets.

  • Initial Panic: The news of Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran caused a knee-jerk reaction.
  • Safe Haven Surge: Investors rushed to gold and oil, seeking security amid the uncertainty.
  • Stabilizing Markets: Despite the early scare, US futures have started to recover, indicating a robust market resilience.
  • Investor Watchfulness: The situation remains fluid, with investors closely monitoring any further developments in the Middle East.

As the market steadies itself, the focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and upcoming corporate earnings reports, which could further influence market movements. The resilience of US futures today underscores the market’s ability to weather geopolitical storms and adapt to evolving global events.

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