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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Market Tremors: U.S. Futures Dip as Inflation Heats Up

 


In a surprising twist that rattled investors, U.S. stock futures took a nosedive following a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, rose by 0.4% over the previous month and 3.5% over the last year in March, surpassing the forecasts which anticipated a 3.4% annual increase. This acceleration from February’s 3.2% annual gain in prices has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may hold off on interest rate cuts, a decision heavily influenced by inflation trends.

The unexpected uptick has led to a significant drop in U.S. futures, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all experiencing over a 1% fall in anticipation of the market opening. This development is a stark reminder of the delicate balance central banks must maintain in their efforts to control inflation without stifling economic growth.

Investors are now bracing for potential turbulence in the markets, as they await further signals from the Federal Reserve on the future trajectory of monetary policy. The upcoming release of the Fed’s March meeting minutes is highly anticipated, with hopes that it will shed light on the policymakers’ stance on rate adjustments in the face of persistent inflationary pressures.

As the market absorbs the impact of the CPI report, all eyes will be on the Fed’s next move, making it clear that the path to economic stability is fraught with uncertainty.

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