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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Mideast Enters Dangerous New Phase With Iran’s Attack on Israel

 

In a significant escalation of tensions, Iran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, firing over 300 drones and missiles. The attack, which took place on a Saturday evening, was largely thwarted by Israel and its allies, including the US, UK, and France, with most of the projectiles intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace¹. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, although a 10-year-old girl in Israel was badly injured by falling shrapnel, and an army base sustained light damage.

US President Joe Biden condemned the assault in the strongest terms, emphasizing that it was the first attack from Iranian soil against Israel. Israeli officials warned that this incident marked "a severe and dangerous escalation" from Tehran. However, neither the US nor Israel indicated immediate plans for retaliation against Iran. The attack came after Iran's embassy compound in Syria was hit by missiles on April 1, resulting in the deaths of seven Iranian officers. Iran stated that it would refrain from further assaults unless Israel responded strongly.

Despite the tension, stock markets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern countries experienced only slight declines. Iran deliberately limited the scale of its retaliation, aiming for maximum symbolism but minimum damage. The situation remains precarious, and global leaders are coordinating a united diplomatic response. Oil prices surged following the Syria strike, with Brent climbing above $90 a barrel, and analysts speculating it could reach $100 if direct conflict between Iran and Israel escalates. The Israeli shekel weakened, and Israeli stocks initially rose but later reversed gains. Saudi Arabia expressed deep concern over the military escalation developments in the region.

As the Middle East enters this perilous new phase, the world watches closely, aware that the situation could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and international relations.



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