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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Netanyahu Vows to Invade Rafah “With or Without” a Deal

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a strong statement regarding the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Despite ongoing truce talks with Hamas, Netanyahu declared that Israel would launch an invasion of Rafah, regardless of any deal. The situation has escalated as attempts continue to reach an agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.

The Stakes

More than half of Gaza’s 2.5 million population resides in Rafah, having fled there to escape fighting in other parts of the territory. Conditions in the overcrowded city are dire, with displaced people facing shortages of food, water, and medication. The West Bank-based Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has warned that an invasion of Rafah would be the “biggest catastrophe in the Palestinian people’s history.”

International Pressure

The United States has also weighed in on the situation. President Joe Biden reiterated his stance against a Rafah invasion unless civilians were properly protected. He previously described such an invasion as a “red line.” Meanwhile, indirect talks between Hamas and Israel have reached an impasse, despite efforts by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to encourage a truce.

Netanyahu’s Determination

Netanyahu remains resolute. He stated that the war would continue until Israel achieved all its objectives in Rafah. “The idea that we will halt the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question,” he asserted. “We will enter Rafah and eliminate the Hamas battalions there with or without a deal.”

The families of hostages, who have been kidnapped by Hamas during the conflict, urged Netanyahu and his national security adviser to continue the war, disregarding mounting international pressure. While some hostages have been released or rescued, over 130 remain unaccounted for.

A Looming Crisis

Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN’s refugee organization, warned that the looming invasion was causing people in Rafah to live in a state of “constant traumatic stress disorder.” The possibility of evacuation hangs in the balance, contingent on whether a deal can be reached this week.

In this tense situation, Netanyahu’s unwavering determination underscores the gravity of the conflict and its impact on civilians caught in the crossfire.

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