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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Ottawa and Ontario Reach Deal to Clear Path for Highway 413 Project

 


In a significant development, Ontario and the federal government have announced a deal that will allow the contentious Highway 413 project to move forward. Here are the key details:

  • Project Assessment Set Aside: The Federal Court ruled that the assessment of Ontario’s Highway 413 project can be set aside. As a result, the highway project can proceed without a full-fledged federal environmental assessment.

  • Collaborative Process: Officials from both levels of government have agreed to a collaborative process to address issues related to federal species at risk throughout the project planning in Ontario. This approach aims to ensure that environmental impacts are minimized while considering critical habitats for species such as the Western chorus frog and the red-headed woodpecker.

  • Federal Court Approval: The Federal Court has canceled the project’s designation under the Impact Assessment Act. A joint consent order filed by both governments on March 20 requested the discontinuation of the federal environmental assessment for the project.

  • Working Group: An essential step involves the establishment of a joint working group between the Ontario transportation ministry and the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada. This group will recommend measures to mitigate environmental impacts within areas of federal environmental jurisdiction. Their collective expertise will guide the project as it moves into the design stage.

  • Ontario’s Commitment: Ontario’s own environmental assessment process is already underway, and the province remains committed to constructing projects that minimize environmental impacts. Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria expressed optimism about moving forward with the Highway 413 project, emphasizing that a federal environmental assessment would have caused significant delays.

This agreement marks a pivotal moment for Ontario, providing much-needed clarity and momentum for the Highway 413 initiative. With the roadblock cleared, the province aims to commence work on the project within the next year. The proposed route for Highway 413 will traverse parts of the Greenbelt, connecting the existing 400 and 401 highways in the northern and western regions of the Greater Toronto Area.

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