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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Stock Market Today: Stocks Rebound as Earnings Take Center Stage


In today’s market, US stocks are making a comeback, with investors shifting their attention away from interest rate concerns and focusing on quarterly earnings. Here’s a brief overview of the current situation:

  1. S&P 500 Rebounds: After a three-day streak of losses, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up approximately 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has also gained 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) leads the gains, rising over 0.5%.

  2. Rate Cut Worries Eased: Despite recent worries about heightened tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding rate cuts, investors are now looking to earnings season for positive momentum.

  3. Big Bank Results: Robust earnings from major banks signal a return to strength on Wall Street. United Airlines (UAL) shares rose 7% after posting a revenue beat, while ASML (ASML), the largest supplier of equipment to chipmakers worldwide, saw its sales to China hold up amid US curbs.

  4. Netflix Earnings Anticipation: Netflix (NFLX) is set to report earnings after the close on Thursday. Investors are optimistic about continued benefits from the company’s crackdown on password sharing and a strong original content slate. However, there’s some concern about growth slowing in the second half of the year.

As we navigate the market, keep an eye on earnings reports and how they impact stock performance. The road ahead remains dynamic, but for now, earnings are taking center stage. Stay tuned for further updates! 

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