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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Stock Market Update: Oil Surge and Fed’s Caution Impact Stocks Ahead of March Jobs Report

 




The stock market faced headwinds today as oil prices soared to their highest level in six months, while a Federal Reserve official’s warning added to investor caution. Here are the key highlights:

  1. Market Retreat:

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by almost 1.4%, shedding 550 points.
    • The S&P 500 (GSPC) dropped 1.2%, marking its worst single-day decline since February 13.
    • The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) slipped 1.4%.

  2. Fed’s Caution:

    • Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested that the Fed may not cut interest rates in 2024 if inflation progress stalls.
    • Investors reacted to this cautious stance, reversing strong midday gains.

  3. Oil Price Surge:

    • Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil futures up by more than 1%.
    • West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) settled at $86.59 per barrel, and Brent (BZ=F) closed at $90.65 per barrel, reaching their highest levels since October.

  4. March Jobs Report Anticipation:

    • All eyes are now on the upcoming March jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday morning.
    • Experts expect it to provide insights into the robustness of the US labor market.
    • Initial jobless claims data released today showed a rise to 221,000, the highest level since January.

In summary, the stock market remains sensitive to oil price fluctuations and Fed communications. Investors eagerly await the jobs report, which will influence the Fed’s policy decisions. Stay tuned for further updates! 

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