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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...

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Stocks Hit by Inflation Woes: ECB Meeting and Market Turbulence

 


Global markets are on edge as investors grapple with inflation concerns. Here’s a snapshot of recent events:

  1. ECB Meeting: Traders are closely monitoring the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Stubborn U.S. inflation numbers triggered a significant global market selloff, leaving Japan’s yen at a 34-year low. The ECB’s decision could set the tone for further market movements.

  2. U.S. Stocks: Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 slipped around 0.3%, following a recent rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also dipped about 0.2%. Investors are recalibrating expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the market now pricing in just two rate cuts in 2024. Some analysts even speculate that no cuts or a hike may be possible, depending on economic data.

  3. Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield steadied after surging to its highest level since November. The focus now shifts to the Producer Price Index reading to gauge wholesale inflation’s impact on Fed decisions.

  4. Oil Prices: Rising oil prices remain a headwind. Crude futures, near six-month highs, hover around $86 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and above $90 for Brent. Geopolitical tensions, including concerns about a potential Iran-Israel conflict, contribute to the volatility.

  5. Corporate Earnings: As first-quarter corporate results trickle in, investors await updates from major banks like JPMorgan. High borrowing costs continue to be a concern, but positive earnings reports could provide momentum to stocks.

In this dynamic landscape, market participants keep a close eye on central bank actions, inflation data, and geopolitical developments. Buckle up for a roller-coaster ride as uncertainty prevails in the financial world.

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