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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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TSX Down Almost 100 Points, U.S. Markets Mixed Amid Ongoing Interest Rate Angst

 

Weakness in several sectors, including financials and utilities, led Canada’s main stock index down almost 100 points on Tuesday. Simultaneously, U.S. markets experienced a mixed day of trading. Here’s a closer look at the market dynamics:

Canadian Market Overview

  • The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 97.33 points at 21,642.87.
  • Industrials, utilities, and base metals were among the sectors that contributed to the decline.
  • Investors grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates, which impacted market sentiment.

U.S. Market Insights

  • U.S. equity markets showed resilience by bouncing back from Monday’s fall.
  • The Dow Jones industrial average gained 63.86 points, closing at 37,798.97.
  • The S&P 500 index dipped 10.41 points, settling at 5,051.41.
  • The Nasdaq composite declined 19.77 points, ending at 15,865.25.

Interest Rate Tensions

  • Recent strong economic data reports have made it clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as soon as many investors had hoped.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank needs more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target before considering rate cuts.
  • Powell’s comments sent “tremors” through the market, leading to an immediate climb in Treasury yields.

Canadian Perspective

  • In Canada, the latest inflation data supports the case for the central bank to start cutting rates.
  • March’s inflation ticked higher to 2.9%, driven by rising gas prices, but core inflation continued to cool.
  • Senior economist Jules Boudreau believes it’s only a matter of time before the Bank of Canada implements rate cuts.

Currency and Commodities

  • The Canadian dollar traded at 72.35 cents US, slightly weaker than the previous day.
  • Crude oil prices remained steady, with the May contract at US$85.36 per barrel.
  • Natural gas prices saw a modest increase, with the May contract at US$1.73 per mmBTU.

In summary, the markets remain on edge due to interest rate uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank decisions as they navigate this volatile landscape. Stay tuned for further developments.


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