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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Holds, Housing Forecast Cut, Fixed-Rate Squeeze (July 17, 2026)

  July 17, 2026 Rates held, home sales forecasts got trimmed again, and fixed-rate mortgage shoppers are feeling the pinch of a wider gap versus variable. Here's what actually moves your money today. 1. The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% — for the sixth straight time The central bank kept its overnight rate unchanged on Wednesday, exactly as economists expected, while trimming its 2026 growth outlook. Policymakers flagged that inflation is gradually cooling but said lingering geopolitical risk and U.S. trade uncertainty keep them cautious about moving in either direction. The next scheduled decision is September 2. What it means for you: Prime rate stays at 4.45%, so variable mortgages, HELOCs, and lines of credit don't move this month. If you're on a variable rate, your payment is unchanged. Savings account and GIC rates aren't likely to shift much either. 2. CREA cut its 2026 home sales forecast again — now expecting a decline The Canadian Real Estate Associat...
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TSX Down Almost 100 Points, U.S. Markets Mixed Amid Ongoing Interest Rate Angst

 

Weakness in several sectors, including financials and utilities, led Canada’s main stock index down almost 100 points on Tuesday. Simultaneously, U.S. markets experienced a mixed day of trading. Here’s a closer look at the market dynamics:

Canadian Market Overview

  • The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 97.33 points at 21,642.87.
  • Industrials, utilities, and base metals were among the sectors that contributed to the decline.
  • Investors grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates, which impacted market sentiment.

U.S. Market Insights

  • U.S. equity markets showed resilience by bouncing back from Monday’s fall.
  • The Dow Jones industrial average gained 63.86 points, closing at 37,798.97.
  • The S&P 500 index dipped 10.41 points, settling at 5,051.41.
  • The Nasdaq composite declined 19.77 points, ending at 15,865.25.

Interest Rate Tensions

  • Recent strong economic data reports have made it clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as soon as many investors had hoped.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank needs more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target before considering rate cuts.
  • Powell’s comments sent “tremors” through the market, leading to an immediate climb in Treasury yields.

Canadian Perspective

  • In Canada, the latest inflation data supports the case for the central bank to start cutting rates.
  • March’s inflation ticked higher to 2.9%, driven by rising gas prices, but core inflation continued to cool.
  • Senior economist Jules Boudreau believes it’s only a matter of time before the Bank of Canada implements rate cuts.

Currency and Commodities

  • The Canadian dollar traded at 72.35 cents US, slightly weaker than the previous day.
  • Crude oil prices remained steady, with the May contract at US$85.36 per barrel.
  • Natural gas prices saw a modest increase, with the May contract at US$1.73 per mmBTU.

In summary, the markets remain on edge due to interest rate uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank decisions as they navigate this volatile landscape. Stay tuned for further developments.


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