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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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TSX Down Almost 100 Points, U.S. Markets Mixed Amid Ongoing Interest Rate Angst

 

Weakness in several sectors, including financials and utilities, led Canada’s main stock index down almost 100 points on Tuesday. Simultaneously, U.S. markets experienced a mixed day of trading. Here’s a closer look at the market dynamics:

Canadian Market Overview

  • The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 97.33 points at 21,642.87.
  • Industrials, utilities, and base metals were among the sectors that contributed to the decline.
  • Investors grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding interest rates, which impacted market sentiment.

U.S. Market Insights

  • U.S. equity markets showed resilience by bouncing back from Monday’s fall.
  • The Dow Jones industrial average gained 63.86 points, closing at 37,798.97.
  • The S&P 500 index dipped 10.41 points, settling at 5,051.41.
  • The Nasdaq composite declined 19.77 points, ending at 15,865.25.

Interest Rate Tensions

  • Recent strong economic data reports have made it clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as soon as many investors had hoped.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank needs more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target before considering rate cuts.
  • Powell’s comments sent “tremors” through the market, leading to an immediate climb in Treasury yields.

Canadian Perspective

  • In Canada, the latest inflation data supports the case for the central bank to start cutting rates.
  • March’s inflation ticked higher to 2.9%, driven by rising gas prices, but core inflation continued to cool.
  • Senior economist Jules Boudreau believes it’s only a matter of time before the Bank of Canada implements rate cuts.

Currency and Commodities

  • The Canadian dollar traded at 72.35 cents US, slightly weaker than the previous day.
  • Crude oil prices remained steady, with the May contract at US$85.36 per barrel.
  • Natural gas prices saw a modest increase, with the May contract at US$1.73 per mmBTU.

In summary, the markets remain on edge due to interest rate uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank decisions as they navigate this volatile landscape. Stay tuned for further developments.


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