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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Anticipation and Reaction to Fed’s Rate Decision

 


As investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, North American stock markets experienced a mixed close. The Fed maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, leaving the future of rate cuts uncertain. Despite this, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped, while the Dow Jones and S&P/TSX Composite saw modest gains.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference offered a glimmer of hope as he dismissed the likelihood of an immediate rate hike, causing a surge in market optimism. He acknowledged the persistent issue of inflation but expressed confidence in the progress towards the 2% target.

The labor market showed signs of normalization, with job openings at a three-year low2. Meanwhile, the earnings season is more than halfway through, with a majority of S&P 500 companies surpassing consensus expectations.

In the corporate landscape, AMD’s AI chip sales forecast led to a 9% drop in its shares, while Amazon’s AI-driven cloud growth pushed its stock up by 2.2%. Johnson & Johnson plans to proceed with a multi-billion-dollar lawsuit settlement, and Starbucks faced a significant sales forecast cut.

The energy sector took a hit due to falling oil prices and a potential Middle East ceasefire, while uranium miners saw a boost from a U.S. ban on Russian imports. Canadian manufacturing activity continued to contract, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

In summary, the market’s response to the Fed’s decision was a complex interplay of anticipation, relief, and sector-specific movements, highlighting the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

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