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Macklem Just Raised the Inflation Alarm: What Monday’s CPI Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Sunday, October 18, 2026  |  Written ahead of Monday’s 8:30 am ET inflation release Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has just told Canadians what the central bank is about to say on October 28: its inflation forecast is going up, and by a lot. The reason is oil. With the Middle East conflict dragging on, shipments still curtailed and refinery capacity damaged, he said the risk that inflation broadens and lingers has gone up. Speaking to reporters from Bangkok on Saturday, he framed the coming decision as a simple question: will inflation drift back toward 2% on its own, or does the Bank need to raise rates to nudge it there? Monday is the first real clue. Here is what is landing, what economists expect, and what it could mean for your gas bill, your grocery cart, your heating costs and your mortgage. 3.0% August CPI, year over year 3.2% September consensus (Reuters poll) 2.25% BoC policy rate, unchanged for nearly a year Oct 28 Rat...
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Anticipation and Reaction to Fed’s Rate Decision

 


As investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, North American stock markets experienced a mixed close. The Fed maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, leaving the future of rate cuts uncertain. Despite this, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped, while the Dow Jones and S&P/TSX Composite saw modest gains.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference offered a glimmer of hope as he dismissed the likelihood of an immediate rate hike, causing a surge in market optimism. He acknowledged the persistent issue of inflation but expressed confidence in the progress towards the 2% target.

The labor market showed signs of normalization, with job openings at a three-year low2. Meanwhile, the earnings season is more than halfway through, with a majority of S&P 500 companies surpassing consensus expectations.

In the corporate landscape, AMD’s AI chip sales forecast led to a 9% drop in its shares, while Amazon’s AI-driven cloud growth pushed its stock up by 2.2%. Johnson & Johnson plans to proceed with a multi-billion-dollar lawsuit settlement, and Starbucks faced a significant sales forecast cut.

The energy sector took a hit due to falling oil prices and a potential Middle East ceasefire, while uranium miners saw a boost from a U.S. ban on Russian imports. Canadian manufacturing activity continued to contract, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

In summary, the market’s response to the Fed’s decision was a complex interplay of anticipation, relief, and sector-specific movements, highlighting the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

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