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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Decision Looms, TSX Sits Near Record Highs

  Saturday, July 11, 2026 Here's what Canadians need to know heading into the week, as markets brace for the Bank of Canada's rate decision and the CUSMA trade file keeps grinding along. 1. The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and a hold is all but locked in The Bank of Canada's next rate announcement lands July 15, and virtually every economist on Bay Street expects the overnight rate to stay parked at 2.25% — what would be a sixth straight pause. A stronger-than-expected June jobs report has taken away any urgency to cut, while cooling inflation and lingering trade uncertainty argue against a hike. Expect the accompanying statement to lean on familiar language: steady as she goes. 2. June's jobs report beat expectations, and the jobless rate ticked down Statistics Canada reported employers added roughly 18,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and building on May's much larger 88,000-job gain. The unemployment rate slipped to 6.5%, back to where it stood in Januar...
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Anticipation and Reaction to Fed’s Rate Decision

 


As investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, North American stock markets experienced a mixed close. The Fed maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, leaving the future of rate cuts uncertain. Despite this, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped, while the Dow Jones and S&P/TSX Composite saw modest gains.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference offered a glimmer of hope as he dismissed the likelihood of an immediate rate hike, causing a surge in market optimism. He acknowledged the persistent issue of inflation but expressed confidence in the progress towards the 2% target.

The labor market showed signs of normalization, with job openings at a three-year low2. Meanwhile, the earnings season is more than halfway through, with a majority of S&P 500 companies surpassing consensus expectations.

In the corporate landscape, AMD’s AI chip sales forecast led to a 9% drop in its shares, while Amazon’s AI-driven cloud growth pushed its stock up by 2.2%. Johnson & Johnson plans to proceed with a multi-billion-dollar lawsuit settlement, and Starbucks faced a significant sales forecast cut.

The energy sector took a hit due to falling oil prices and a potential Middle East ceasefire, while uranium miners saw a boost from a U.S. ban on Russian imports. Canadian manufacturing activity continued to contract, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

In summary, the market’s response to the Fed’s decision was a complex interplay of anticipation, relief, and sector-specific movements, highlighting the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

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