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Daily Markets Update: Oil Rattles TSX Ahead of BoC Hike Week | Oct 26

  Canadian Money Brief • Daily Markets Update Monday, October 26, 2026 • Covers Friday’s North American and European closes plus Monday’s Asian session Oil took over from AI as the market’s main worry on Friday. Crude jumped above US$100 on fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia, the S&P/TSX Composite finished the week lower, and Wall Street logged a second straight weekly loss for the S&P 500. Monday brought a small reprieve: oil slipped after no weekend escalation in the Iran war, and most Asian and European markets steadied — just ahead of a week stacked with central bank decisions, including the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The 30-second version TSX: 35,788.18 , down 185.27 points (−0.52%) Friday; −1.07% on the week. Wall Street: Dow −1.2%, S&P 500 −0.5%, Nasdaq −0.2%. Oil: WTI settled at US$103.27 ; Brent at US$116.72 . Loonie: 71.46¢ US , a five-week high. Bank of Canada: markets price roughly an 80% chance of a hike to 2.50% on Wednesday. Canada: TSX Ends the Week in the...
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Anticipation and Reaction to Fed’s Rate Decision

 


As investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, North American stock markets experienced a mixed close. The Fed maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, leaving the future of rate cuts uncertain. Despite this, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped, while the Dow Jones and S&P/TSX Composite saw modest gains.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference offered a glimmer of hope as he dismissed the likelihood of an immediate rate hike, causing a surge in market optimism. He acknowledged the persistent issue of inflation but expressed confidence in the progress towards the 2% target.

The labor market showed signs of normalization, with job openings at a three-year low2. Meanwhile, the earnings season is more than halfway through, with a majority of S&P 500 companies surpassing consensus expectations.

In the corporate landscape, AMD’s AI chip sales forecast led to a 9% drop in its shares, while Amazon’s AI-driven cloud growth pushed its stock up by 2.2%. Johnson & Johnson plans to proceed with a multi-billion-dollar lawsuit settlement, and Starbucks faced a significant sales forecast cut.

The energy sector took a hit due to falling oil prices and a potential Middle East ceasefire, while uranium miners saw a boost from a U.S. ban on Russian imports. Canadian manufacturing activity continued to contract, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.

In summary, the market’s response to the Fed’s decision was a complex interplay of anticipation, relief, and sector-specific movements, highlighting the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

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