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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada’s Inflation Rate Falls to 2.7% in April Amid Price Growth Slowdown

 

Canada’s annual inflation rate declined to 2.7 per cent in April, down from 2.9 per cent in March. This broad-based deceleration in price growth provides the Bank of Canada (BoC) with a potential “all clear” signal for a June rate cut.

Key Points:

  1. Food Prices, Services, and Durable Goods: The slowdown was led by food prices, services, and durable goods. These sectors experienced a moderation in price increases, contributing to the overall cooling of inflation.

  2. BoC’s Considerations: With inflation easing, the BoC may have more room to maneuver its monetary policy. A rate cut could stimulate economic activity and support recovery.

  3. Market Expectations: Analysts are closely watching the BoC’s next move. If the trend continues, a rate cut in June could be on the horizon.

Implications:

The decline in inflation suggests that the Canadian economy is stabilizing after a period of rapid price increases. While the BoC will carefully assess economic data, the recent cooling of inflation provides an opportunity for policy adjustments.

As always, market participants and consumers should stay informed about central bank decisions and their potential impact on borrowing costs, investments, and overall economic conditions.


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