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Carney Tempers Expectations on U.S.-Canada Trade Talks

                                             Carney says U.S. tariff reprieve 'unlikely' to happen before CUSMA review talks. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has downplayed the likelihood of a near-term trade deal between Canada and the United States, signaling that any progress will likely be folded into the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) scheduled for 2026. Speaking at a press conference in Ottawa, Carney explained that efforts to secure sector-specific agreements—particularly in industries such as steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber—have stalled since U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended negotiations in October. The talks were derailed after Ontario aired a controversial anti-tariff advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan, which drew sharp criticism from Washington. Carney emphasized that while Canada...
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Loonie Surges After Canada Job Gains Beat Expectations

 

In a surprising turn of events, Canada’s job market outperformed expectations, leading to a surge in the Canadian dollar (often referred to as the “loonie”). Here are the key highlights:

  • Job Gains: Canada added 90,000 jobs in April, surpassing economists’ estimates. The majority of these gains were in part-time positions.

  • Unemployment Rate: Despite the robust job gains, the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1%.

  • Market Reaction: The loonie strengthened against the US dollar immediately after the release of the employment data. However, it later retraced some of those gains.

  • Rate Cut Speculation: Prior to the report, there were expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of Canada. However, the strong job numbers have led traders to pare odds of a June cut back to a coin toss.

While the headline figures are impressive, it’s essential to consider the broader context. Canada’s rapid population growth due to immigration has led to a persistent trend of job creation falling short of new working-age entrants. Additionally, wage growth remains subdued, which the central bank views favorably in terms of easing inflationary pressures.

As policymakers await the upcoming April inflation report, the decision on interest rates will likely hinge on any surprises in inflation data. If inflation remains in check, the Bank of Canada may still proceed with a rate cut in June. However, the overall labor market trend suggests a softening, which could influence their decision-making process.

In summary, while the loonie celebrates the positive employment figures, the central bank’s focus remains on inflation dynamics. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether monetary policy takes a more accommodative turn or maintains its current stance. 

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