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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....

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TSX Futures Subdued as Commodity Prices Weigh on Investor Optimism


In the premarket trading, futures for Canada’s main stock index remained subdued due to a decline in commodity prices. Despite optimism following the index nearing a record high in the previous session, lower commodity prices have tempered expectations. Let’s dive into the details.

The S&P/TSX composite index on the Toronto Stock Exchange had recently reached its highest level in four weeks. This rally was triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged at its last meeting, coupled with indications that the next move would likely be a rate cut.

However, commodities took a hit. Both precious and base metals saw price declines, partly due to a stronger U.S. dollar, which made commodities relatively more expensive. Oil prices also fell, driven by industry data showing an accumulation of crude and fuel inventories in the U.S. Additionally, cautious supply expectations ahead of an OPEC+ policy meeting contributed to the decline in oil prices.

Investors are closely monitoring employment data for April in Canada and weekly jobless claims in the U.S. for further insights. Meanwhile, Suncor Energy, the second-largest oil producer in Canada, beat first-quarter profit estimates, supported by robust demand for refined products and record oil sands production.

In summary, while optimism persists, the drag from sliding commodity prices is keeping TSX futures in check. Investors are navigating this delicate balance as they await economic data and corporate earnings reports.


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