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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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US Economy Adds 175,000 Jobs in April, Unemployment Rate Edges Up


The latest data from the Labor Department reveals that the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April. While this marks a solid gain, it falls short of the 240,000 jobs that economists had anticipated. Here are the key facts and figures:

  1. Job Creation: The US job market has been expanding at a robust pace despite 11 rate hikes from the Federal Reserve aimed at slowing down the economy. In March, the economy added an impressive 315,000 jobs, well above expectations. However, April’s figure of 175,000 indicates a firm slowdown in job growth.

  2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.9%, compared to the estimated 3.8%. While this increase is modest, it highlights the ongoing challenges in the labor market.

  3. Wage Gains: Workers’ wage gains continue to outpace inflation, providing some relief amid rising living costs. However, the pace of wage bumps has slowed, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage inflation.

Despite the April slowdown, the US economy has maintained a remarkable streak of 40 consecutive months of employment expansion, making it the fifth longest such period on record. Additionally, the nation’s jobless rate has held below 4% for 26 consecutive months.

Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as any further signs of a slowdown could prompt the central bank to consider a rate cut sooner than expected. For now, markets anticipate the first cut to occur in November or December.

In summary, while the US job market remains resilient, the April report suggests a need for continued vigilance as economic conditions evolve.

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