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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Wall Street Faces Pre-Fed Jitters

 

U.S. markets are bracing for another volatile day as Wall Street tumbles in premarket trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Here’s a brief overview of what’s happening:

  1. Asian Stocks Follow Suit:

    • Asian stocks fell, with most markets in the region closed for a holiday.
    • Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost 0.4%, reflecting a milder shrink in factory activity in Japan.
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 1.1%.
    • Other regional markets were closed due to Labor Day.

  2. U.S. Stock Performance:

    • The S&P 500 closed out its worst month since September, tumbling 1.6% on Tuesday.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 2%.
    • Stocks began sinking after a report showed U.S. workers received bigger wage gains than expected in Q1, fueling inflation concerns.
    • Traders have given up hopes of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to higher Treasury yields and pressure on stocks.

  3. Fed Decision Anticipation:

    • The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its main interest rate at this meeting.
    • Traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the rest of the year.

  4. Stock-Specific Moves:

    • GE Healthcare Technologies tumbled 14.3% after weaker-than-expected results.
    • F5 dropped 9.2% despite reporting better profits.
    • McDonald’s slipped 0.2% due to weakening sales trends in franchised stores overseas.

In summary, investors are on edge as they await the Fed’s decision. While no rate change is expected, Powell’s outlook will be closely watched. Stay tuned for further updates!



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