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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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Canada’s Capital-Gains Tax Hike Faces Crucial Vote

 

In a pivotal moment for Canadian finance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is set to call a vote on a contentious tax change. The proposed hike in the capital-gains tax inclusion rate has sparked debate across the nation, with significant implications for both individuals and businesses.

  • Tax Change Proposal: The government plans to increase the capital-gains tax on gains over C$250,000, affecting a small percentage of Canadians.
  • Potential Impact: Business groups have criticized the move, fearing it could deter investment and exacerbate productivity issues.
  • Political Strategy: The Liberals have separated this tax change from the budget bill, possibly aiming to challenge the Conservatives politically.
  • Revenue Expectations: The tax hike is estimated to generate almost C$20 billion over five years, funding new programs in housing and national defense.

The vote, scheduled for Monday, will be a defining moment for Trudeau’s fiscal policy and could set the stage for Canada’s economic direction in the coming years.

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