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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Gaza Ceasefire Plan: A High-Stakes Gamble for Survival

 

For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a deadly game of survival. The terms on which the war finally ends could largely determine their political future and their grip on power. Let’s delve into the complexities of this high-stakes situation.

The Stakes

Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar’s Dilemma

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar faces a precarious situation. His physical survival is at risk, and this vulnerability has hindered previous negotiations. The question of how to permanently end the fighting has been deferred until the last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden. Sinwar knows that any misstep could cost him dearly.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Calculated Approach

Netanyahu, too, treads carefully. Phase one of the plan involves the release of hostages—both living and dead. While this move would be welcomed by many, Netanyahu must ensure that Hamas won’t restart the war once the hostages are home. His coalition partners demand a tough stance against Hamas, but he also faces a corruption trial and the prospect of early elections.

The Chasm and the Way Forward

Permanent Ceasefire Guarantees vs. Keeping Options Open

Hamas leaders seek permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront. Previous deals collapsed due to this chasm. Netanyahu, however, wants to keep his long-term options open. Bridging this gap depends on his maneuvering room with hard-right government allies and Hamas leaders’ willingness to consider alternatives to Hamas’s “elimination.”

The Missing Leaders

While Hamas has suffered military losses, its top leaders—Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif—remain unscathed. Their fate remains critical. If Israel leaves them free in Gaza, it could spell political disaster for Netanyahu.

In this deadly game of survival, both sides weigh their moves carefully. The world watches as they navigate treacherous waters, hoping for a lasting resolution that doesn’t come at the cost of more lives.



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