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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Inflation Eases in May as Consumer Prices Rise at Slower Pace

 

A closely-watched report on U.S. inflation showed consumer prices cooled during the month of May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday morning. Here are the key points:

  1. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends:

    • The CPI remained flat over the previous month.
    • Prices rose 3.3% over the prior year in May, which is a deceleration from April’s 0.3% month-over-month increase and 3.4% annual gain in prices.
    • Both measures beat economist expectations.

  2. Factors Contributing to the Slowdown:

    • A decline in energy prices, led by a drop in gas prices, contributed to further downward pressure on headline CPI.
    • On a “core” basis (excluding volatile food and gas costs), prices in May climbed 0.2% over the prior month and 3.4% over last year — cooler than April’s data.
    • Again, both core measures exceeded economist estimates.

  3. Federal Reserve Implications:

    • The inflation report arrives just ahead of the central bank’s policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.
    • Investors are closely watching this data point to shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

In summary, while inflation remains a concern, the May data suggests a moderation in price increases. The Federal Reserve’s response will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape.


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