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Markets Digest Hot U.S. Inflation as Iran Tensions Keep Oil Elevated

Publication:  moneysavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief  Date:  Tuesday, May 13, 2026 The TSX opens cautiously Wednesday after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data rattled Wall Street on Tuesday, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to lift energy stocks and pressure the loonie toward 1.35 against the greenback. TSX ~34,291 S&P 500 7,400.96 ▼0.16% WTI Oil ~$102/bbl ▲ Gold ~$4,721 USD/oz ▼ USD/CAD ~1.35 US CPI Apr 3.8% ▲ (est. 3.7%) Market Overview Canadian investors are starting Wednesday on a cautious note following a mixed session south of the border. U.S. equities dipped Tuesday after April's consumer price index came in at 3.8% — a touch above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023 — while the core rate held at 2.8%, also above expectations. The data has effectively closed the door on any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with traders now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike by April 2027. For Canadians, the ripple effects...
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Inflation Eases in May as Consumer Prices Rise at Slower Pace

 

A closely-watched report on U.S. inflation showed consumer prices cooled during the month of May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday morning. Here are the key points:

  1. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends:

    • The CPI remained flat over the previous month.
    • Prices rose 3.3% over the prior year in May, which is a deceleration from April’s 0.3% month-over-month increase and 3.4% annual gain in prices.
    • Both measures beat economist expectations.

  2. Factors Contributing to the Slowdown:

    • A decline in energy prices, led by a drop in gas prices, contributed to further downward pressure on headline CPI.
    • On a “core” basis (excluding volatile food and gas costs), prices in May climbed 0.2% over the prior month and 3.4% over last year — cooler than April’s data.
    • Again, both core measures exceeded economist estimates.

  3. Federal Reserve Implications:

    • The inflation report arrives just ahead of the central bank’s policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.
    • Investors are closely watching this data point to shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

In summary, while inflation remains a concern, the May data suggests a moderation in price increases. The Federal Reserve’s response will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape.


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