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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...
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Inflation Eases in May as Consumer Prices Rise at Slower Pace

 

A closely-watched report on U.S. inflation showed consumer prices cooled during the month of May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday morning. Here are the key points:

  1. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends:

    • The CPI remained flat over the previous month.
    • Prices rose 3.3% over the prior year in May, which is a deceleration from April’s 0.3% month-over-month increase and 3.4% annual gain in prices.
    • Both measures beat economist expectations.

  2. Factors Contributing to the Slowdown:

    • A decline in energy prices, led by a drop in gas prices, contributed to further downward pressure on headline CPI.
    • On a “core” basis (excluding volatile food and gas costs), prices in May climbed 0.2% over the prior month and 3.4% over last year — cooler than April’s data.
    • Again, both core measures exceeded economist estimates.

  3. Federal Reserve Implications:

    • The inflation report arrives just ahead of the central bank’s policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.
    • Investors are closely watching this data point to shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

In summary, while inflation remains a concern, the May data suggests a moderation in price increases. The Federal Reserve’s response will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape.


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