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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Tensions Escalate as Hezbollah Leader Issues Stark Warnings to Israel and Cyprus

 

In a recent televised address, the leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, delivered a stern warning to both Israel and Cyprus, signaling a potential escalation in regional tensions. Nasrallah’s speech comes amid ongoing hostilities and serves as a reminder of the fragile state of affairs in the Middle East.

  • Dire Warnings: Nasrallah cautioned that in the event of a full-scale war, “no place” in Israel would be safe from Hezbollah’s reach. His threats extended to Cyprus, which he accused of aiding Israeli military exercises, suggesting that it could be considered “a part of the war.”

  • Hezbollah’s Capabilities: The militant group has demonstrated its ability to strike at sea, as evidenced by the attack on an Israeli warship during the 2006 war. Reports suggest that Hezbollah may possess advanced anti-ship missiles, further underscoring the seriousness of Nasrallah’s threats.

  • Cyprus’ Involvement: Nasrallah’s address marks the first time Cyprus has been explicitly threatened by Hezbollah. The Mediterranean nation has allowed Israel to use its airspace for drills, though not during active conflicts, raising questions about its role in regional security dynamics.

  • A Call for Caution: The international community must remain vigilant as the situation unfolds. Nasrallah’s declarations underscore the need for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and ensure stability in a region that has seen too much conflict.

This development highlights the complex interplay of military, political, and diplomatic factors in the Middle East, where the actions of one nation can have far-reaching implications for its neighbors and beyond.



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