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Canada’s Inflation Climbs to 2.4% as Gas Prices Surge to Record High

  Canada’s inflation rate accelerated to 2.4% in March , up from 1.8% in February, as the Iran war triggered the largest monthly gasoline price increase on record . Statistics Canada reported that gas prices surged 21.2% month‑over‑month , a supply‑shock response to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East instability.  Energy costs were the dominant driver of March inflation, with overall energy prices rising 3.9% year‑over‑year after a sharp decline the month before. Excluding gasoline, inflation would have eased to 2.2% , highlighting how concentrated the price shock was.  Food inflation offered mixed relief: grocery prices rose 4.4% , while fresh vegetables jumped 7.8% due to difficult growing conditions. Restaurant inflation cooled sharply as last year’s tax‑holiday distortions fell out of the annual comparison.  Economists note that while headline inflation spiked, core measures remained relatively tame , giving the Bank of Canada ro...
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Canada’s Unemployment Rate Rises, Fueling Speculation of July Rate Cut

 

Canada’s unemployment rate has climbed for the third time in four months, reaching 6.2%. While the country added 26,700 jobs in May, the rising jobless rate has prompted economists to consider the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Here are the key points:

  1. Job Market Trends:

    • Canada’s labor market saw modest growth, but the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point.
    • The unemployment rate has risen by 1.1 percentage points since April last year.
    • The involuntary part-time rate increased, signaling potential weakness in the economy.

  2. Bank of Canada’s Stance:

    • Governor Tiff Macklem hinted at further rate cuts if inflation progress continues.
    • The central bank is “not close” to the limit of divergence from the Federal Reserve.
    • Markets have priced in about a 58% chance of another rate cut next month.

  3. Economic Outlook:

    • While there’s evidence supporting lower interest rates, the economy hasn’t plummeted.
    • Expect a gradual pace of interest rate reductions this year, with cuts likely at alternate meetings.

In summary, Canada’s rising unemployment rate has put pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider a rate cut in July. Economists are closely monitoring the situation, and the decision will have implications for the Canadian dollar and bond yields. Stay tuned for further updates as the economic landscape evolves.


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