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The Loonie Just Hit a 14-Month Low — Here's What It's Costing You

   Saturday, July 25, 2026 The Canadian dollar has slid to its weakest level since April 2025, and speculators are betting it has further to fall. Here's why it's happening and what it actually means for your wallet. If you've bought anything in U.S. dollars lately — a flight, an Amazon.com order, a hotel for a Florida trip — you may have noticed the exchange rate isn't doing you any favours. The Canadian dollar touched 1.4248 per U.S. dollar (about 70.2 U.S. cents ) last week, its weakest level in 14 months, before steadying closer to 1.41 . It's not just a bad week. Currency speculators have piled into bets against the loonie so aggressively that the Canadian dollar has overtaken the Japanese yen as the most heavily shorted major currency in the world, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Net short positions against the CAD hit roughly US$12.5 billion — the largest bearish bet on the loonie since December 2024. Why the loonie is ...
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Canada’s Unemployment Rate Rises, Fueling Speculation of July Rate Cut

 

Canada’s unemployment rate has climbed for the third time in four months, reaching 6.2%. While the country added 26,700 jobs in May, the rising jobless rate has prompted economists to consider the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Here are the key points:

  1. Job Market Trends:

    • Canada’s labor market saw modest growth, but the unemployment rate edged up by 0.1 percentage point.
    • The unemployment rate has risen by 1.1 percentage points since April last year.
    • The involuntary part-time rate increased, signaling potential weakness in the economy.

  2. Bank of Canada’s Stance:

    • Governor Tiff Macklem hinted at further rate cuts if inflation progress continues.
    • The central bank is “not close” to the limit of divergence from the Federal Reserve.
    • Markets have priced in about a 58% chance of another rate cut next month.

  3. Economic Outlook:

    • While there’s evidence supporting lower interest rates, the economy hasn’t plummeted.
    • Expect a gradual pace of interest rate reductions this year, with cuts likely at alternate meetings.

In summary, Canada’s rising unemployment rate has put pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider a rate cut in July. Economists are closely monitoring the situation, and the decision will have implications for the Canadian dollar and bond yields. Stay tuned for further updates as the economic landscape evolves.


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