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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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French Election Outcome: Leftist Coalition Gains Majority, Macron Faces Uncertainty

 

The French election results have yielded an intriguing outcome. While the far-right party, led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, increased its seats in the National Assembly, it did not secure an outright majority. Instead, French voters granted the most parliamentary seats to a broad leftist coalition, keeping the far right away from power. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance came in second. 

Now, with no clear figure emerging as a possible future prime minister, Macron faces uncertainty. He has stated that he will wait to decide his next steps and is heading to Washington this week for a NATO summit. The new legislators can begin work in parliament on Monday, with their first session scheduled for July 18. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation, but Macron asked him to remain temporarily as head of the government. Macron’s term runs until 2027, and despite his weakened position, he still holds significant powers over foreign policy, European affairs, defense, and international treaties negotiation. 

For now, France remains in an unprecedented situation, and the challenge lies in navigating this delicate political landscape.

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