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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Global Outage Sends Markets Tumbling: S&P/TSX and U.S. Indices Drop


The S&P/TSX composite index closed lower on Friday, reflecting a broader downturn in global markets. The index fell by 36.37 points to settle at 22,690.39. This decline was part of a larger trend, as U.S. markets also experienced significant losses.

The downturn was largely attributed to a global outage caused by a faulty software update from CrowdStrike, which affected numerous companies and organizations worldwide. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 377.49 points to 40,287.53, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite indices fell by 39.59 points and 144.28 points, respectively.

The Canadian dollar also saw a slight decrease, trading at 72.85 cents U.S., down from 73.01 cents U.S. on Thursday. Commodity markets were not spared, with crude oil prices dropping by $2.66 to $78.64 per barrel, and gold prices falling by $57.30 to $2,399.10 an ounce.

This market reaction underscores the interconnected nature of global financial systems and the widespread impact that technological disruptions can have on economic stability.


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