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Gulf on Edge as UAE Oil Hub Blaze Fuels Iran–US Tensions

  Smoke rises in the Fujairah oil industry zone, caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defences. A surge in regional tensions has followed a major fire at a UAE oil hub, sparked by debris from intercepted drones, as Iran vows retaliation for a recent U.S. strike on its Kharg Island oil facilities. The incident has intensified fears of broader conflict across the Gulf, with Iran warning that parts of the UAE could be considered legitimate targets.  A significant fire erupted at a major oil hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, after debris from intercepted drones fell onto the facility, disrupting operations and sending plumes of smoke across the region. The blaze occurred amid escalating hostilities following a U.S. strike on Iran’s Kharg Island—Tehran’s primary oil export terminal. Iran responded with sharp warnings, declaring that U.S. “hideouts” within the UAE could be targeted as legitimate military sites. The threat came as Iran continued missile and d...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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