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Canada’s Jobless Rate Rises to 6.8% Despite December Hiring

          A employee sorts batteries on a conveyor belt at a recycling facility in Port Colborne, Ontario. Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.8% in December , even though the economy added 8,200 jobs during the month. The increase in unemployment wasn’t driven by widespread layoffs but by a surge in the number of people entering the labour force and actively looking for work. December Highlights Unemployment rate: Up from 6.5% to 6.8% Employment: Net gain of 8,200 jobs Labour force: Expanded significantly, outpacing job creation Full-time work: Increased Part-time work: Declined Why the Rate Rose Economists point out that the rise in unemployment reflects renewed labour market participation , not a weakening economy. More Canadians felt confident enough to start job hunting, but hiring didn’t keep pace with the influx of job seekers. This marks the fourth straight month of employment growth , yet December also saw the largest increas...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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