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Markets Rebound as U.S. Ceasefire Proposal to Iran Sparks Investor Optimism

  U.S. stock futures surged early Wednesday as reports of a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal to Iran boosted market sentiment and pushed oil prices sharply lower. Investors reacted positively to signs of potential de‑escalation in the Middle East, lifting Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures after a volatile week. U.S. stock futures climbed on Wednesday following reports that Washington sent Iran a 15‑point ceasefire plan aimed at halting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The development injected cautious optimism into global markets, which have been rattled by geopolitical tensions in recent weeks.  Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose around 1% , while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped more than 1% , reversing some of the previous session’s losses. The shift in sentiment was amplified by a sharp retreat in oil prices— WTI crude fell over 5% , easing inflation concerns and improving the outlook for corporate margins.  The reported ceasef...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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