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New Diplomacy on the Horizon: U.S. and Russia Push Ahead Without Ukraine

  In a bold shift from previous diplomatic efforts, top U.S. and Russian officials have agreed to advance negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine—even as Ukrainian representatives remain notably absent. High-level talks held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, saw U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussing the framework for future peace negotiations and steps toward restoring bilateral relations. The Trump administration’s approach, which prioritizes direct engagement with Moscow, marks a departure from longstanding principles that insisted on “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Critics in Kyiv have voiced strong opposition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that any agreement reached without Ukraine’s participation would be unacceptable and would undermine the nation’s sovereignty. European leaders echoed these concerns, with several officials labeling the move as a dangerous precedent that could lead to a “dirty deal...

Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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