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Washington Scales Back Regional Footprint Amid Iranian Warnings

Empty airspace over Iran, during a temporary closure of the country's airspace amid concerns about possible military action between the United States and Iran The United States has begun precautionary drawdowns at several military bases across the Middle East after Iranian officials warned neighbouring countries that American facilities could be targeted in the event of a wider conflict. The adjustments focus on relocating non‑essential personnel and reducing exposure as regional tensions continue to rise. Iran’s message to nearby states underscored its concern that any U.S. military action could spill over into the broader region. By cautioning its neighbours, Tehran signaled both its desire to deter potential strikes and its readiness to respond if provoked. U.S. officials described the moves as prudent rather than predictive, emphasizing that the drawdowns do not indicate an imminent operation. Instead, they reflect a shifting security environment in which Washington is recal...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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