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Carney’s First Budget Signals a Generational Reset for Canada’s Finances

Prime Minister Mark Carney jokes with Minister of Finance and National Revenue Francois-Philippe Champagne as they greet families before participating in an announcement at a community centre in Ottawa, on Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inaugural budget is being framed as a turning point in Canada’s fiscal direction, marking a sharp departure from the spending patterns of recent years . Presented alongside Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, the budget is not just a financial document but a statement of intent: to reshape the country’s economic priorities in the face of global uncertainty and domestic pressures. At the heart of the plan is a shift away from expansive spending toward what Carney has described as “tough choices” and “sacrifices.” The government has emphasized that Canada must “spend less to invest more” , signaling a reallocation of resources rather than an outright expansion of the deficit. This approach reflects Carney’s long-standing...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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