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5 Things to Know Today: Tariffs, a CPI Surprise, and the Mortgage Rate Gap

  July 21, 2026 A new round of US tariffs, a surprise inflation dip, and a widening gap between fixed and variable mortgage rates are all moving in different directions today. Here's what's happening and what it means for your money. 1. Washington hits Canada with new 50% tariffs on everyday goods The White House has announced fresh 50% tariffs on a wide list of Canadian exports, including wine, dairy, furniture, hockey equipment, cement, and clothing. The move is framed as retaliation over Canada's dairy quotas, car import rules, and provincial bans on US alcohol. The tariffs take effect August 19 and apply even to goods that would normally qualify duty-free under CUSMA, though energy, potash, fish, and critical minerals are exempt. What it means for you: This round targets export industries, not imports into Canada, so it won't directly raise shelf prices here the way a Canadian tariff on US goods would. The bigger risk is indirect — job pressure in affected sectors ...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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