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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Tomorrow: What Every Canadian Needs to Know Before June 10

Current Rate 2.25% Held since Oct 2025 Expected Decision HOLD 34/34 economists Announcement 9:45 AM Wed, June 10 (ET) Prime Rate 4.45% Most major lenders On Wednesday morning, June 10, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET — and for Canadians with a mortgage, a variable-rate loan, or a renewal coming up, the decision is just two days away. Governor Tiff Macklem will follow with a press conference at 10:30 AM. The short answer: expect no change. But the full picture is considerably more complicated — and the Bank's tone tomorrow could signal whether rate hikes are quietly creeping back onto the table. The Consensus: A Hold, Full Stop The economist community is remarkably united heading into this decision. In a Reuters poll conducted June 2–5, all 34 economists surveyed predicted the Bank would leave its overnight rate at 2.25%. More than 80% said it would stay there for the rest of 2026. "Under normal circumstances, today's sagging econom...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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