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Trump Signals Near End to Iran Conflict Amid Conflicting Messages

  President Donald Trump has suggested that the United States is “very close” to winding down its military campaign in Iran, even as the conflict continues to escalate across the region. Speaking to reporters, Trump said the U.S. could end its operations within “two to three weeks,” emphasizing that Iran does not need to agree to a deal for the war to conclude. The remarks come as the administration prepares a national address on the Iran conflict, now entering its second month. The war has caused widespread destruction, disrupted global energy markets, and driven oil prices sharply upward. Despite Trump’s statements about de‑escalation, U.S. troop deployments have increased, with thousands of additional Marines sent to the Middle East.  Trump’s messaging has been inconsistent. While he has publicly hinted at a drawdown, he has also positioned U.S. forces for potential expanded operations and delayed major strikes in hopes of diplomatic progress—progress Iran denies is occu...
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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