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Wall Street Pauses as Fed Meeting Looms: Futures Hold Steady

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all hovered near flat, reflecting a cautious mood across Wall Street. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but traders are focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the central bank’s updated economic projections. Markets are looking for clues on when rate cuts might begin in 2024, with inflation cooling but still above the Fed’s long-term target. Recent gains in equities have been fueled by optimism that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, yet uncertainty remains about how quickly monetary policy will shift toward easing. Until then, investors appear content to hold their positions, waiting for clearer signals from the Fed before making bold moves.
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Inflation Falls in June for First Time Since 2020

A closely-watched report on US inflation revealed that consumer price increases cooled further during the month of June. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% over the previous month and increased just 3.0% over the prior year in June. This marks a deceleration from May’s flat month-over-month increase and the 3.3% annual gain in prices. Notably, it’s the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in below 0%.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in June climbed 0.1% over the prior month and 3.3% over last year—cooler than May’s data. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly uptick in core prices and a 3.4% year-over-year increase.

The markets responded to this report, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 9 basis points to trade around 4.2%. While inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis, recent economic data suggests that the central bank may consider cutting rates sooner than later. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin rate cuts at its September meeting.

This data adds to other rate cut signals across the labor market and economy. The labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, ahead of economists’ expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest reading in almost three years.

Notably, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—showed inflation easing in May, with a year-over-year change of 2.6%, in line with estimates and the slowest annual gain in more than three years.


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