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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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LCBO Strike Continues Amidst Dispute Over Return-to-Work Protocol

 

A tentative agreement to end the two-week-long strike at the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) has been thrown into question, with both sides accusing each other of bad faith bargaining. The Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU), representing 10,000 LCBO workers, announced that the strike would continue because the employer refused to sign a return-to-work protocol.

Despite initial optimism, the LCBO has stated that OPSEU introduced significant new monetary demands after the tentative deal was reached, which they argue should have been addressed during negotiations. The LCBO plans to file an unfair labour practice complaint against OPSEU.

The strike, which began on July 5, has been largely driven by concerns over Premier Doug Ford’s plan to allow convenience and grocery stores to sell ready-to-drink cocktails, a move that OPSEU claims threatens their jobs. The LCBO, however, maintains that this issue is not relevant to the bargaining table.

Negotiations had resumed earlier this week, with the LCBO offering wage increases, improved benefits for part-time workers, and the conversion of casual workers to permanent full-time positions. However, the failure to finalize the return-to-work protocol has left the strike ongoing, with no clear resolution in sight.


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