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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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New Union Demands Cast Doubt on LCBO Strike Resolution

 

The tentative agreement reached between the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) and the Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU) to end the ongoing strike is now in jeopardy. Despite initial optimism, the union has raised concerns over the LCBO’s refusal to sign a return-to-work protocol, a crucial step for the workers to resume their duties.

The strike, which began on July 5, has seen over 9,000 LCBO employees walk off the job, leading to widespread store closures across Ontario. The tentative deal, announced on July 19, included wage increases and other benefits. However, by the afternoon, the union accused the LCBO of bad faith bargaining, claiming the employer introduced new demands post-agreement.

The LCBO, on the other hand, has stated that the union’s additional demands were unexpected and should have been addressed during the initial negotiations. The board plans to file an unfair labour practice complaint against OPSEU.

As both parties return to the bargaining table, the future of the agreement remains uncertain, leaving Ontarians to face continued disruptions in liquor store services.


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