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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Stocks Rise as Weak Economic Data Sink US Yields

                                        

Wall Street traders sent stocks higher and bond yields fell as a string of weaker-than-estimated economic reports reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. In a shortened session ahead of the US holiday, the S&P 500 headed toward a fresh all-time high.

In summary:

  • The S&P 500 rose to around 5,520.
  • Tesla Inc. extended its rally into a seventh straight session.
  • Amazon.com Inc. fell.
  • Treasury 10-year yields fell seven basis points to 4.36%.
  • Swap traders project almost two rate cuts in 2024, with the first in November.
  • The dollar headed toward its biggest drop since mid-May.

Investors are closely watching Friday’s employment data for further insight into the state of the labor market. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding at 4%.


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