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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Stocks Rise as Weak Economic Data Sink US Yields

                                        

Wall Street traders sent stocks higher and bond yields fell as a string of weaker-than-estimated economic reports reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. In a shortened session ahead of the US holiday, the S&P 500 headed toward a fresh all-time high.

In summary:

  • The S&P 500 rose to around 5,520.
  • Tesla Inc. extended its rally into a seventh straight session.
  • Amazon.com Inc. fell.
  • Treasury 10-year yields fell seven basis points to 4.36%.
  • Swap traders project almost two rate cuts in 2024, with the first in November.
  • The dollar headed toward its biggest drop since mid-May.

Investors are closely watching Friday’s employment data for further insight into the state of the labor market. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding at 4%.


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