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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Stocks Rise as Weak Economic Data Sink US Yields

                                        

Wall Street traders sent stocks higher and bond yields fell as a string of weaker-than-estimated economic reports reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. In a shortened session ahead of the US holiday, the S&P 500 headed toward a fresh all-time high.

In summary:

  • The S&P 500 rose to around 5,520.
  • Tesla Inc. extended its rally into a seventh straight session.
  • Amazon.com Inc. fell.
  • Treasury 10-year yields fell seven basis points to 4.36%.
  • Swap traders project almost two rate cuts in 2024, with the first in November.
  • The dollar headed toward its biggest drop since mid-May.

Investors are closely watching Friday’s employment data for further insight into the state of the labor market. Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding at 4%.


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